As of early Thursday afternoon, Tropical Depression Cristobal was nearly stationary over southern Mexico. It continues to bring torrential rainfall to parts of southern Mexico and Central America, which has lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Over the next 24-36 hours Cristobal will turn north, moving back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by late Friday. Once over open water, the storm will steadily strengthen.

Intensification will be somewhat limited as Cristobal begins to interact with a trough over the western Gulf. Despite some dry air and wind shear though, we should still end up with a strong tropical storm, if not a minimal hurricane, as Cristobal nears the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. Models continue to be very consistent in the track of this storm, with landfall along the central Gulf Coast late Sunday or early Monday – likely in Louisiana or Mississippi.

Deep tropical moisture will generate periods of heavy rainfall along the central and eastern Gulf Coast through the weekend. In the next day or two, we’ll start talking about more specific impacts for areas close to the landfall location.