Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the southwestern Gulf Tuesday afternoon. This the earliest third named storm on record in the Atlantic. On average, the third named storm doesn’t form until early August.

For the next few days, Cristobal will be meandering around the Bay of Campeche. Whether or not it stays over the water or drifts over land for a period of time, will play a big role in the storm’s intensity as it begins to move north toward the northern Gulf Coast later in the week.

Models are in fairly good agreement at this point. Both the GFS and Euro, and their ensemble members, show a healthy tropical storm moving north this weekend. However, the Euro is showing a stronger storm. There won’t be many factors working against it, so steady strengthening is expected. Residents along the northern Gulf Coast from Texas to Mississippi should be monitoring the progress of this storm over the course of this week and check back for updates. Once the storms moves away from the Yucatan in a few days, we can starting talking about specific U.S. impacts.