An area we’ve been monitoring in the Gulf now has a 20% development chance from the National Hurricane Center. The odds still remain low: 0% over the next 2 days and 20% over the next 7 days.

The timeframe we’re watching is this Saturday through next Wednesday as something tries to form and move northeast.

There will be increased moisture and tropical downpours across Florida and parts of the SE regardless of development.

There are several things working against a tropical system: land interaction, wind shear and dry air.

The area of low pressure would spin up in the northeastern Gulf where water temps are plenty warm for a tropical storm, in the upper 80s to near 90.

How close that happens to Florida will be a big factor in something forming. If circulation remains over the warm Gulf waters, it is not out of the question to see quick organization.

To be classified has a tropical system, there needs to be a defined circulation with thunderstorms organized around it. Once max sustained winds reach 39 mph, it’s a tropical storm and is given a name.

If this area tagged in the Gulf and SE reaches that feat, it will be named Tropical Storm Bertha.

The second named storm of the season, in this case Bertha, usually forms on or by July 17.

As we turn the calendar to July, the Atlantic is off to a quiet start. With the National Hurricane Center no longer tracking the disturbance off the Southeast coast, no tropical development is expected over the next seven days.

Forecast models suggest this quiet pattern could last even longer. One of the biggest reasons is El Niño, which is producing stronger winds high in the atmosphere. Those winds make it much harder for tropical systems to organize. At the same time, the Pacific has weaker upper-level winds, helping fuel a more active hurricane season there.

Another factor keeping the Atlantic quiet is Saharan dust. Thick plumes of dry, dusty air have spread across the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and parts of the Gulf over the past several weeks. This dry air limits thunderstorm development, making it more difficult for tropical systems to strengthen. Long-range forecast models suggest the dust will continue to be a factor through much of July.

So far, Arthur remains the Atlantic’s only named storm of the 2026 hurricane season. At this point last year, we had already seen two named storms, with a third developing on July 4th.

Historically, July accounts for about 8% of all Atlantic named storms. Most systems that develop this month form closer to the U.S. East Coast or in the northern Gulf rather than deep in the tropical Atlantic. While the Atlantic looks quiet for now, hurricane season is still in its early stages. Activity typically begins to ramp up in August before reaching its peak in September, so it’s still a good time to make sure your hurricane plans are in place.