After a long stretch of quiet across the tropics, we are now keeping tabs on two areas of disturbed weather.

Neither system poses an immediate threat to Tampa Bay and both have relatively low chances of becoming tropical depressions or tropical storms over the next week. Still, this is the time of year when tropical activity can begin to ramp up quickly, so both disturbances will be monitored closely.

The first disturbance is currently farther west (marked with a yellow x) in the tropical Atlantic and will continue moving west toward the Lesser Antilles through the end of the week. There is considerable disagreement among forecast models on whether this system will ever become a tropical depression. Some models attempt to organize the disturbance, while many others never have it come close to development.

The Caribbean is a particularly hostile environment for tropical development right now, with strong upper-level winds (shown in green) creating significant wind shear. That shear can disrupt thunderstorms and prevent a developing tropical system from organizing. The ongoing El Niño pattern is one factor contributing to the unfavorable upper-level environment across parts of the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.  

The second disturbance is the one that deserves a little more attention in the longer range. A new tropical wave is expected to emerge from the African coast over the next day or so and move westward into the yellow shaded region. Weather models are slightly more supportive of this wave eventually trying to develop later next week. This is because the system may enter a more favorable environment once it gets farther west of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, there are still plenty of obstacles it must overcome.

Saharan dust and dry air will be present across portions of the tropical Atlantic, while wind shear also remains elevated across the Main Development Region. Those factors will be working in tandem against the formation of each disturbance.

As of now, the majority of weather models that develop the second wave eventually show it being pulled back toward the north before reaching the Caribbean. A weakness in the Bermuda High could allow the system to turn more toward the open Atlantic instead of continuing straight west toward the Caribbean or the United States. Of course, that’s all contingent on the system developing in the first place.

Each tropical wave has a long way to go, and there are still significant environmental obstacles that could prevent either one from developing.

If either system manages to become a named storm, the next name on the 2026 Atlantic list is Cristobal. 

Tropical Depression 2 formed off Florida’s west coast this morning and is expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha within the next day or so as it continues to organize.

For the Tampa Bay area, very little has changed. The system will continue moving away from our coastline, so we’re not expecting significant local impacts. Our main concern remains periods of showers and thunderstorms, with higher rain chances continuing into early next week before coverage gradually decreases as the system pulls farther away.

Additional Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flights this afternoon should provide a clearer picture of the storm’s structure.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for much of the Florida Panhandle coastline, from the Ochlockonee River west to the Alabama border, where tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 to 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be issued farther west over the next couple of days.

Beyond that, the forecast becomes more uncertain. If the center stays close to the northern Gulf Coast, land interaction and pockets of drier air wrapping into the circulation would likely limit strengthening, favoring a weaker system tracking toward eastern Louisiana. However, if the center remains farther offshore over the open, very warm Gulf waters, it would have a better opportunity to organize and strengthen, potentially reaching hurricane strength as it pulls west. Exactly how close the center stays to the coastline over the next couple of days will play a major role in determining both its strength and eventual track.