A strong tropical wave just moved off the coast of Africa with formation odds climbing to 70% over the next 2 days.

The area of low pressure is south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. It’s carrying a good amount of moisture and has a decent chance to fight off Saharan dust and wind shear enough to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

As it moves in the general direction of the Caribbean Islands through this week, some models strengthen into a tropical system.

If it develops, there is a strong chance it will curve north of the Caribbean and many models have been favoring that idea. Some models keep it weaker and more south with a closer pass to the northeast islands.

There is a chance Invest 96L dies out before it reaches the islands, or arches north before then. We’ll see if warm ocean waters allow for strengthening despite Saharan dust and hostile winds it encounters.

Keep in mind, nothing has formed yet and models tend to struggle before a system has organized. This is something we’ll be tracking this week into next.

The other area in the Atlantic, Invest 95L, is a broad low pressure area a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. It has a medium (40% chance) to develop but the window of opportunity is short.

If it can get organized today or tomorrow as it moves north-northeast, this could become a depression or short-lived Tropical Storm Dolly.

Regardless of development, this system will bring rain to Newfoundland, Canada on Tuesday before running into cooler waters and hostile winds.

Tropical Storm Cristobal has formed in the central Atlantic, but it is no threat to the United States. Cristobal is tracking east-northeast and is expected to remain relatively weak.

The system has a short-lived forecast and is not expected to last long.

While we are keeping tabs on Cristobal, we are also tracking two tropical waves in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.

The westernmost disturbance, Invest 92L, has the better chance of developing and is likely to become a tropical depression within the next couple of days as it moves toward the Caribbean.

If 92L organizes, it is unlikely to become very strong. The system will be battling Saharan dust and powerful upper-level winds that would likely prevent significant strengthening. If it remains weak or disorganized, it could prove to become a beneficial rain-maker for many of the Caribbean islands

Behind 92L, is a second disturbance that has shown growing signs of eventual development in recent weather models. There is lots of disagreement on its eventual track, if it forms in the first place. Its trajectory would carry it closer to the Lesser Antilles early next week.

The next tropical storm that develops would take the name Dolly. For Tampa Bay, there are no concerns at this time.