After a long stretch of inactivity, we are now keeping an eye on one spot in the Atlantic with a chance of formation in the next week. A tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic will interact with an approaching area of disturbed weather over the next few days. As this disturbance approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week, it will have a small opportunity to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center is giving it a low (20%) chance of formation, with those odds primarily kicking in after the weekend. At the moment, there is low confidence among our forecast models that this system will form and it is too early to speculate on any potential path if it were to do so.

This disturbance is located in a region where we typically see cyclone development in the month of August.

Saharan dust (among other factors) continues to keep the remainder of the Atlantic quiet for now.

Saharan dust has continued to suppress tropical activity. That trend will likely stay alive for a few more days as a new dust plume stretches across the tropical Atlantic.

Large plumes of dust can dry out the atmosphere and make it difficult for any tropical systems to organize. That dust can also block some sunlight from reaching the water below, which can slightly drop sea surface temperatures.

Regardless, our current water temperatures are still higher than we typically see this time of the year.

No new named storms are expected to form over the next week. “Debby” will be the next name used if a tropical storm or hurricane forms.

While it can be easy during this break to take your focus off the tropics, it’s still important to remain informed and prepared. We likely have around 95% of hurricane season activity ahead of us.