Tropical Storm Dolly dissipates before reaching Caribbean Islands

Tropical Storm Dolly has weakened into an open tropical wave. It has been struggling to develop while surrounded by dry air and strong wind shear.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are 1,000 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving at a pretty quick pace of 25 mph to the west.

The winds associated with the remnants of Dolly will be below tropical-storm force on Saturday well before reaching the islands.

There will still be some locally heavy rain from the remnants of Dolly in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late Saturday – Monday.

Dolly lasted about 24 hours as a Tropical Storm as El NiƱo conditions continue to create a hostile environment in the Atlantic and limit development.

Edouard is the next name in line this hurricane season.

Invest 96L in the Atlantic has high development chances

A strong tropical wave just moved off the coast of Africa with formation odds climbing to 70% over the next 2 days.

The area of low pressure is south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. It’s carrying a good amount of moisture and has a decent chance to fight off Saharan dust and wind shear enough to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

As it moves in the general direction of the Caribbean Islands through this week, some models strengthen into a tropical system.

If it develops, there is a strong chance it will curve north of the Caribbean and many models have been favoring that idea. Some models keep it weaker and more south with a closer pass to the northeast islands.

There is a chance Invest 96L dies out before it reaches the islands, or arches north before then. We’ll see if warm ocean waters allow for strengthening despite Saharan dust and hostile winds it encounters.

Keep in mind, nothing has formed yet and models tend to struggle before a system has organized. This is something we’ll be tracking this week into next.

The other area in the Atlantic, Invest 95L, is a broad low pressure area a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. It has a medium (40% chance) to develop but the window of opportunity is short.

If it can get organized today or tomorrow as it moves north-northeast, this could become a depression or short-lived Tropical Storm Dolly.

Regardless of development, this system will bring rain to Newfoundland, Canada on Tuesday before running into cooler waters and hostile winds.