Saharan dust is still keeping the tropical Atlantic quiet

Saharan dust has continued to suppress tropical activity. That trend will likely stay alive for a few more days as a new dust plume stretches across the tropical Atlantic.

Large plumes of dust can dry out the atmosphere and make it difficult for any tropical systems to organize. That dust can also block some sunlight from reaching the water below, which can slightly drop sea surface temperatures.

Regardless, our current water temperatures are still higher than we typically see this time of the year.

No new named storms are expected to form over the next week. “Debby” will be the next name used if a tropical storm or hurricane forms.

While it can be easy during this break to take your focus off the tropics, it’s still important to remain informed and prepared. We likely have around 95% of hurricane season activity ahead of us.

Monitoring one disturbance and plumes of Saharan dust

Following a busy start to the Atlantic hurricane season, we’re now only experiencing limited activity in the tropics. We are only monitoring a broad area of low pressure off the southeastern United States coast with slim odds of formation over the next week.

Conditions are only marginally favorable for development as this disturbance moves over the Southeastern United States by this weekend. Ample amounts of shear and dry air will be the primary obstacles to this organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The majority of our weather models do not support the development of this system.

Climatologically, this is a region where we would typically see tropical development in July.

Saharan dust continues to blanket a notable amount of the Atlantic, including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. This will likely continue to tamper tropical activity over the next week.

Central Florida will continue to see a slight haze in the sky and small drops in air quality over the next couple of days thanks to this Saharan dust. Allergies and respiratory issues may be aggravated during this period. These dust plumes can also create vibrant sunrises and sunsets, with more of a glow than we would typically see in the evening.