Tropical Depression 2 formed off Florida’s west coast this morning and is expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha within the next day or so as it continues to organize.

For the Tampa Bay area, very little has changed. The system will continue moving away from our coastline, so we’re not expecting significant local impacts. Our main concern remains periods of showers and thunderstorms, with higher rain chances continuing into early next week before coverage gradually decreases as the system pulls farther away.

Additional Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flights this afternoon should provide a clearer picture of the storm’s structure.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for much of the Florida Panhandle coastline, from the Ochlockonee River west to the Alabama border, where tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 to 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be issued farther west over the next couple of days.

Beyond that, the forecast becomes more uncertain. If the center stays close to the northern Gulf Coast, land interaction and pockets of drier air wrapping into the circulation would likely limit strengthening, favoring a weaker system tracking toward eastern Louisiana. However, if the center remains farther offshore over the open, very warm Gulf waters, it would have a better opportunity to organize and strengthen, potentially reaching hurricane strength as it pulls west. Exactly how close the center stays to the coastline over the next couple of days will play a major role in determining both its strength and eventual track.

We’re monitoring Invest 91L in the eastern Gulf, which has a chance of developing over the next few days. This is the same broad area of low pressure has been bumping up central Florida’s coastal rain totals these past few days. For now, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 50% chance of development within the next week.

The latest trends continue to keep any potential system moving away from the Tampa Bay area if it develops. A weaker, less organized system likely travels farther north. Most westward plots account for a slightly stronger system.

For us, the expected impacts have hardly changed. Expect higher rain chances for our coastal communities through Monday. It won’t be an all-day washout, but you can expect a round or two of showers and storms each day.

Rain chances continue to rise along other areas along the northern Gulf coast.

If Invest 91L organizes and strengthens enough to become a tropical storm, it would be named Bertha. It’s worth noting that environmental conditions in the Gulf aren’t especially favorable for rapid strengthening, which is why most forecast models that show development keep the system relatively weak.