The National Hurricane Center is now keeping an eye on the southwestern Gulf. We could see a broad area of low pressure get going over the next few days, but for now NHC gives it a 40% chance of it becoming a tropical depression or stronger over the next 7 days.

There are several hurdles for this to form. It would have to develop along a stalled front, and strong winds higher up in the atmosphere could make it difficult for the system to organize.

Weather models that develop the system, have it initially form in an area of very warm water and lower wind shear. While development is still uncertain, anything that forms could eventually bring impacts to the northern Gulf. At the moment, it’s too early in the forecast process to speculate on exactly where that would be.

The Atlantic is missing something this season: hurricanes. No hurricane forming during September is rare. And 2026 joins the short list of hurricane-free Septembers.

This is striking because this is typically the busiest month in the Atlantic Basin and considered the heart of hurricane activity. The seasonal peak lands on Sept 10.

This is only the second time since the 1960’s without a hurricane by the end of September.

1994 was the last time with zero hurricanes during September. But even that season had one form during August and another hurricane in November.

1907 and 1914 are the only two seasons without a recorded Atlantic hurricane. These seasons are among the least active on record, but it’s possible there were storms in the open Atlantic we don’t know of.

Prior to hurricane hunters or weather satellites, hurricanes could have gone undetected if they remained far from land and ships at sea. The most reliable data started in 1966 when the U.S. began routine satellite weather monitoring.

Where we stand this season:

8 named storms → 0 hurricanes → 0 major hurricanes

At this point in the season, 5 hurricanes and two major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes would typically have formed.

The first hurricane during an average Atlantic season forms by August 11. The first major hurricane usually forms by Sept 1.

Accumulated cyclone energy, a measure that combines the strength and duration of every storm, is about 10% of normal for this point in the season.

Record latest hurricane formation:

The other remarkable part is how late we’ve gone without a hurricane. We’ve blown past the old record and are still awaiting the new date for the latest hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin.

The previous latest first hurricane in the satellite era was September 11, set by Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013. 

It’s been over 330 days since there was a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. Hurricane Melissa was the last hurricane, reaching hurricane status on October 25, 2025 before making landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 storm and weakening on Oct 31.

Hurricane season runs through November 30. Here’s to hoping this record quiet stretch in the Atlantic continues.