Tropical Storm Fay formed in the North Atlantic this morning. This is the sixth named storm of the season and cames three weeks behind the average date we expect our sixth storm to form.

While Fay could briefly strengthen into a hurricane in the short term, it will eventually enter into an unfavorable environment and likely dissipate early next week. This storm is not a threat to the Unites States.

If Fay becomes a hurricane, this would end our 324-day streak without a hurricane in the Atlantic.

There are no other active areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin being monitored at this time.

An area east-southeast of Bermuda has medium odds of tropical development over the next seven days. This area is no threat to Florida or the U.S. at this point, but Bermuda should keep an eye on it.

The National Hurricane Center is now giving this non-tropical disturbance a 40% chance to become a tropical depression later this week into next week.

As the system slowly moves west, it could find a slot of more favorable conditions for tropical development. Areas of strong wind shear continue to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic, along with Saharan Dust still active.

The models have been pretty split on this system. AI models are much more excited about something developing, while other traditional models are not on board with this idea at all and show minimal tropical development.

The steering is light in this part of the Atlantic so the area will likely meander without moving much closer to the East Coast before eventually moving north into the open Atlantic.

Since nothing has formed yet from this trough of low pressure, forecasts tend to change before a defined center forms. We’ll keep you updated.