Tropical Depression Nine just formed in the Gulf and is forecast to become the first hurricane of the season. It is expected to steadily strengthen with peak intensity up to Category 2.

Eyeing landfall along the Gulf Coast Friday-early Saturday. Tropical impacts will span from the Florida Panhandle through Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana.

Currently, it has winds of 35 mph and is slowly moving east in the SW Gulf. It will turn NE/north Thursday into Friday, and accelerate towards the Gulf Coast as upper steering pick the system up.

The storm will be lopsided with the worst of the weather east of the storm’s center. Strong shear & dry air could likely help weaken the storm ahead of landfall, but those from the FL Panhandle to Louisiana should be prepping for a hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center is now keeping an eye on the southwestern Gulf. We could see a broad area of low pressure get going over the next few days, but for now NHC gives it a 40% chance of it becoming a tropical depression or stronger over the next 7 days.

There are several hurdles for this to form. It would have to develop along a stalled front, and strong winds higher up in the atmosphere could make it difficult for the system to organize.

Weather models that develop the system, have it initially form in an area of very warm water and lower wind shear. While development is still uncertain, anything that forms could eventually bring impacts to the northern Gulf. At the moment, it’s too early in the forecast process to speculate on exactly where that would be.