We’re monitoring Invest 91L in the eastern Gulf, which has a chance of developing over the next few days. This is the same broad area of low pressure has been bumping up central Florida’s coastal rain totals these past few days. For now, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 50% chance of development within the next week.

The latest trends continue to keep any potential system moving away from the Tampa Bay area if it develops. A weaker, less organized system likely travels farther north. Most westward plots account for a slightly stronger system.

For us, the expected impacts have hardly changed. Expect higher rain chances for our coastal communities through Monday. It won’t be an all-day washout, but you can expect a round or two of showers and storms each day.

Rain chances continue to rise along other areas along the northern Gulf coast.

If Invest 91L organizes and strengthens enough to become a tropical storm, it would be named Bertha. It’s worth noting that environmental conditions in the Gulf aren’t especially favorable for rapid strengthening, which is why most forecast models that show development keep the system relatively weak.

An area we’ve been monitoring in the Gulf now has a 20% development chance from the National Hurricane Center. The odds still remain low: 0% over the next 2 days and 20% over the next 7 days.

The timeframe we’re watching is this Saturday through next Wednesday as something tries to form and move northeast.

There will be increased moisture and tropical downpours across Florida and parts of the SE regardless of development.

There are several things working against a tropical system: land interaction, wind shear and dry air.

The area of low pressure would spin up in the northeastern Gulf where water temps are plenty warm for a tropical storm, in the upper 80s to near 90.

How close that happens to Florida will be a big factor in something forming. If circulation remains over the warm Gulf waters, it is not out of the question to see quick organization.

To be classified has a tropical system, there needs to be a defined circulation with thunderstorms organized around it. Once max sustained winds reach 39 mph, it’s a tropical storm and is given a name.

If this area tagged in the Gulf and SE reaches that feat, it will be named Tropical Storm Bertha.

The second named storm of the season, in this case Bertha, usually forms on or by July 17.