An area east-southeast of Bermuda has medium odds of tropical development over the next seven days. This area is no threat to Florida or the U.S. at this point, but Bermuda should keep an eye on it.

The National Hurricane Center is now giving this non-tropical disturbance a 40% chance to become a tropical depression later this week into next week.

As the system slowly moves west, it could find a slot of more favorable conditions for tropical development. Areas of strong wind shear continue to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic, along with Saharan Dust still active.

The models have been pretty split on this system. AI models are much more excited about something developing, while other traditional models are not on board with this idea at all and show minimal tropical development.

The steering is light in this part of the Atlantic so the area will likely meander without moving much closer to the East Coast before eventually moving north into the open Atlantic.

Since nothing has formed yet from this trough of low pressure, forecasts tend to change before a defined center forms. We’ll keep you updated.

No hurricanes have formed so far in the Atlantic Basin, allowing this season to claim a new record for the latest first hurricane.

The previous record was tied with both Gustav & Humberto reaching hurricane status on September 11. Gustav was during the 2002 season and Humberto in 2013.

This record dates back to the start of the satellite era in the 1960’s, when satellites started tracking hurricanes more accurately.

So far this season, there have been 5 tropical storms, 3 of which have been in the Gulf.

The official peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10, has come and gone without a single hurricane forming and below average activity driven by hostile El Niño conditions.

Last year’s first hurricane showed up in mid-August, and three more spun up in the second half of September. The ‘G name’ typically forms on August 29.

Fay in the next name in line this season.