The area we’ve been watching off the southeast coast has a very limited chance of developing and is expected to fizzle out.

It currently has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days and the environment becomes even less favorable past that as dry air moves into the area.

Outside of this, things are quiet as Saharan dust drifts across the Atlantic and parts of the Caribbean.

This dust significantly dries out the atmosphere and suppresses tropical activity. The Saharan Air Layer starts about 1 mile above the surface and has 50% less moisture than standard tropical air.

Bertha is the next name in line this season.

On average, the B storm forms by July 17.

Tropical Storm Arthur, the first storm of the Atlantic season, just formed along the coast of Texas.

Sustained winds jumped from 30 to 40 mph Wednesday morning, officially making this a tropical storm.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended west to High Island, Texas and runs to Morgan City, Louisiana. Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Sargent, TX to High Island, TX.

Arthur will weaken quickly as it moves through Texas & Louisiana today and Thursday.

Heavy rain and flash flooding continue to be the main threat from Arthur. Looking at rainfall totals of 5-10″, isolated totals near 20″ through Friday.

Heaviest rainfall will be from the Mid-Upper Texas coast into Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle will also see locally high rainfall amounts that could cause dangerous flash flooding.