Satellite imagery today has shown a very well developed and dangerous hurricane. Even before the Hurricane Hunter arrived inside the storm earlier today we knew this hurricane had undergone rapid intensification, it was just a matter of just how much had it grown by.

The Hurricane Hunter aircraft left this morning from Bermuda and flew south into Hurricane Florence. What they found was a major hurricane with winds up to 130mph sustained and a pressure that had fallen significantly from their previous flight on Sunday. The plane made two passes through the storm. On their first pass they recorded a central pressure at 947mb. On their second pass through the center they recorded an even lower pressure at 943mb which indicates the storm is continuing to strengthen.

Water temperatures will continue to support more intensification over the coming days as SST temperatures are approaching 85° F.  Wind shear will remain light over the system as well giving a very favorable environment to support a major hurricane.

Models have been showing more consistency from run to run but there still remains some differences between some of the major models. The ECMWF ensemble members continues to zero in with a landfall along the Carolina coastline with only a handful of ensemble runs going either north or south of the Carolina coast. There is growing indication also that once this storm makes landfall that steering currents will weaken and this storm could linger for days causing devastating flooding.

For the short term the strong ridge that has formed in the northwest Atlantic will remain in place keeping Florence on a westerly track with a gradual turn NW as it nears the western edge of the ridge. With the warm waters and low wind shear Florence should be able to maintain its major hurricane status with fluctuations in wind speeds mainly due to eyewall replacement cycles that it will begin to experience over the next couple of days.

The tropics continue to show more activity with Hurricane Isaac heading in the direction of the Leeward Islands. Once it reaches the Caribbean the wind shear will increase and most model guidance suggest a steady decrease in intensity there after.

Further out into the Atlantic we have Helene which is should be of no concern to anyone as it turns and heads north over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Today Invest 95L was designated in the western Caribbean. NHC is putting a 50% chance development on this area over the next 5 days. This disturbance will continue moving westward toward Texas by the weekend.

Florence became a hurricane again on Sunday morning and it won’t be looking back anytime soon. Rapid intensification is likely to occur over the next couple of days as the moves west-northwest through a very favorable environment. A category 4 hurricane within 48 hours is a likely possibility.

While there are still some questions regarding the exact track of Florence as it approaches the coast, the two most likely scenarios that model trends are leaning toward are 1) a northward turn with a storm either scraping or staying just offshore of the Outer banks of North Carolina and 2) a further southwest track with a direct landfall on the South Carolina or North Carolina coast. The important thing to remember here is that we are still at least 4 days from landfall. Things can and will change, and it will take a couple more days to iron out specific details. Obviously, folks with interests in these areas should be checking back frequently for updates.

We also continue to keep any eye on Helene and Isaac. Helene is now a hurricane, and Isaac will soon gain that status as well. Both will continue to move west over the next couple days, but Helene should start to curve north by the middle of the week and should ultimately not pose a threat to anyone. Isaac on the other hand will be moving into the Caribbean by Thursday. Parts of the Lesser Antilles should see tropical storm or hurricane warnings issued at some point on Tuesday. Thereafter, the storm should encounter quite a bit of wind shear over the Caribbean and, as of right now, models don’t do a whole lot with it. Just something for us to babysit over the next week or so.