AS of 2pm ET Friday afternoon, Cristobal is once again a tropical storm. It’ll be moving into the Southern Gulf this evening.

It’s a lopsided system, with an abundance of dry air over the western Gulf, as well as some wind shear, working against it. That being said, we’re still expecting a slow and steady strengthening up until landfall along the central Gulf Coast late in the weekend.

Models continue to be consistent in Cristobal’s track, showing a likely landfall along the Louisiana coast Sunday night. A tropical storm watch is now in effect from Intracoastal City, LA to the AL/FL border.

Despite some expected strengthening, Cristobal should remain a lopsided storm – consisting of a broad and asymmetric wind field. Wind and surge issues will be present well east of the center of the storm. Storm surge watches are currently in effect near the mouth of the Mississippi River, and also through the Big Bend region of Florida.

On top of coastal flood issues, an additional 3-5″+ of rain is expected along the central and eastern Gulf Coast through early next week as deep tropical moisture spreads north. This will come on top 2-6″ of rain that has already fallen across the Florida Peninsula over the last 48 hours.

As of early Thursday afternoon, Tropical Depression Cristobal was nearly stationary over southern Mexico. It continues to bring torrential rainfall to parts of southern Mexico and Central America, which has lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Over the next 24-36 hours Cristobal will turn north, moving back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by late Friday. Once over open water, the storm will steadily strengthen.

Intensification will be somewhat limited as Cristobal begins to interact with a trough over the western Gulf. Despite some dry air and wind shear though, we should still end up with a strong tropical storm, if not a minimal hurricane, as Cristobal nears the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. Models continue to be very consistent in the track of this storm, with landfall along the central Gulf Coast late Sunday or early Monday – likely in Louisiana or Mississippi.

Deep tropical moisture will generate periods of heavy rainfall along the central and eastern Gulf Coast through the weekend. In the next day or two, we’ll start talking about more specific impacts for areas close to the landfall location.