As of the 5pm advisory on Saturday evening, the center of Tropical storm Ian was located a couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. The storm is still moving west along the southern edge or a ridge to the north, but a turn to the northwest should take place on Sunday.

Just looking the satellite imagery you can see that the system has definitely gotten more organized today as expected. The northeasterly shear of the last few days is no longer having an effect. With no wind shear, very minimal land interaction, and incredibly deep warm water Ian will strengthen without a doubt rather quickly the rest of the weekend into early next week. In fact, there rather higher likelihood that it undergoes a period of rapid intensification – that is an increase of at least 35 mph in wind speeds within a 24 hour period.

With respect to track beyond 3 days or so, there remains a high degree of uncertainty. Afternoon models run today haven’t provided much clarity. There was a noticeable shift west in both the GFS and Euro runs – the GFS continuing to be the further west of the two. That being said, there is still a considerable spread amongst there ensemble members. We’ll see if the trend continues in upcoming runs later tonight and tomorrow. For now, the National Hurricane Center has bumped the latest track slightly to the west. We must stress that the entire Florida Gulf Coast needs to be on guard and paying close attention to this storm.