A disorganized area of showers and storms over Central America will be headed northwest into the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days.

This time of year, these areas have to be watched, as development can happen quickly close to home. That being said, what we’re dealing with here will likely end up being just a slug of tropical moisture that will merge with an approaching cold front over the western Gulf on Friday.

Above: Weak low merging with front heading into this weekend.

While the chance for tropical development is low, the chance for rain and localized flooding will be high for a good chunk of the Gulf Coast and Deep South later this week and through the weekend.

Once Halloween rolls by, the mainland U.S. threat for tropical systems drops pretty quickly. The official hurricane season end date in the Atlantic basin is November 30.