Hurricane Grace Makes Landfall; Henri Set To Strengthen, Threatening New England This Weekend

Hurricane Grace is weakening quickly after making its second landfall as a category 3 hurricane along eastern Mexico overnight.

The first major hurricane of the season previously made landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula. As of 8am Saturday, Grace had weakened to a category 1 hurricane and will continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over mountainous terrain. Remnants of Grace may reemerge in the eastern Pacific as a new storm.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Henri continues to show signs of strengthening this morning and is very close to hurricane strength. The National Hurricane Center forecast shows the storm becoming a hurricane by this afternoon as it continues to track towards New England.

Hurricane Watches and Warnings are posted for areas in Henri’s path where 3-5 feet of storm surge is possible, which combined with up to 10” of rain which could create a major flooding issue. Henri could weaken back to a tropical storm just before landfall as it moves over relatively cooler waters. If Henri makes landfall in southern New England, it would be the first time the region saw a direct hit in 30 years. The most recent was Hurricane Bob in 1991, which slammed into Rhode Island as a category 2 hurricane.

Outside of higher than normal swells and an elevated rip current risk along east coast beaches, no impacts are expected in Florida from Henri.

Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a wave in the eastern Atlantic. The area is only given a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Heavy rains from Fred; Grace and Henri struggle with wind shear but will strengthen

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall across the Florida panhandle on Monday. As it moved onshore the heavy rainfalls spread into Georgia. It has since weakened into a depression, but the rains will continue to spread north into the Appalachian mountains.

Rainfall estimates through Friday show 4-8 inches of rain in northeast Georgia and into the mountains of North Carolina. Lesser amounts into the northeast, but 2-4 inches of rain over a widespread area are possible with the remains of Fred.

Tropical Storm Grace has been showing better organization but has still been plagued by wind shear and interaction with land. In the short term, Grace will likely not strengthen but as it moves into the western Caribbean into open water and less wind shear it will begin to strengthen. Grace will likely become a hurricane before moving over the Yucatan as it continues westward. A building ridge to the north will keep Grace from turning north and affecting the United States.

Tropical Storm Henri also continues to deal with strong wind shear from the Northwest. This is pushing all the convection to the east of the center. This windshear will lessen over the next 24 hours which should allow for some strengthening. The eventual track of Henri should keep it from affecting any land areas directly.

The GFS model illustrates the ridge building westward over the U.S. keeping Grace on a westward track. A trough embedded in the ridge to the west of Henri will eventually cause this storm to do a U turn and head out over the open waters of the Atlantic.