The Atlantic Hurricane season is just around the corner officially beginning on June 1st. For the past 7 years we have had a named tropical system before the start of the hurricane season. Will 2022 be the 8th year in a row? The next few weeks will determine that, but we have been in a weak La Nina and it appears that we will transition into ENSO neutral conditions by summer/fall.

Colorado State issued their initial forecast for the upcoming season on April 7, 2022. They are calling for an above average season. Remember this is with the new updated averages which increased in 2021. They cited the ENSO neutral conditions by summer/fall.

The other factor Colorado State noted was the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. Simply put, are the waters of the Atlantic basin warmer or cooler than average.

Much of the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic are running warmer than average. The eastern Atlantic is running near to just slightly below average.

This week is also Hurricane Preparedness Week. This is the time of year to review with your family to know the basics for the season. This includes knowing are you in an evacuation zone? If so, where would you go if you needed to evacuate? Have documents such as homeowners insurance ready. Know what they include and do not include. Consider updating if needed. Get your supplies! Do not wait until the rush at the stores when a storm is on its way. Stock up on water, food, and batteries. You want to have enough supplies for at least 3-5 days. Remember the medicines, first aid kit, cash and keep your car full of gas when there is a threat of a tropical system.

The hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. The Tampa Bay area has been largely spared for a long time and there is no way to know how long this will last. You must be prepared each year as if this is the year.

Hurricane Grace is weakening quickly after making its second landfall as a category 3 hurricane along eastern Mexico overnight.

The first major hurricane of the season previously made landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula. As of 8am Saturday, Grace had weakened to a category 1 hurricane and will continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over mountainous terrain. Remnants of Grace may reemerge in the eastern Pacific as a new storm.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Henri continues to show signs of strengthening this morning and is very close to hurricane strength. The National Hurricane Center forecast shows the storm becoming a hurricane by this afternoon as it continues to track towards New England.

Hurricane Watches and Warnings are posted for areas in Henri’s path where 3-5 feet of storm surge is possible, which combined with up to 10” of rain which could create a major flooding issue. Henri could weaken back to a tropical storm just before landfall as it moves over relatively cooler waters. If Henri makes landfall in southern New England, it would be the first time the region saw a direct hit in 30 years. The most recent was Hurricane Bob in 1991, which slammed into Rhode Island as a category 2 hurricane.

Outside of higher than normal swells and an elevated rip current risk along east coast beaches, no impacts are expected in Florida from Henri.

Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a wave in the eastern Atlantic. The area is only given a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days.