As of 4PM Wednesday, Nicole was located about 135 miles east of West Palm Beach. Max sustained winds were at 70 mph.

While some slight strengthening is possible up until the time landfall tonight, whether it’s a category 1 hurricane or tropical storm won’t make any real difference in terms of impacts across the state. Landfall will likely happen somewhere between North Palm Beach and the Sebastian Inlet.

Winds will continue to increase through the evening, with topical storm conditions overspreading Central Florida overnight. Late Wednesday night through Thursday morning will be the window for the worst weather across Central Florida.

While just about everybody across Central and North Florida will experience a period of tropical storm-force winds and rain squalls tonight through Thursday, by far the biggest impact from Nicole will be coastal flooding near and north of where the center comes ashore. Peak storm surge of 3-5 feet is expected from North Palm Beach up through coastal Georgia.

In the wake of Nicole, cooler/drier air will settle in across the Southeast over the weekend.

Well, it’s looking increasingly more likely that we’ll have a named storm approaching the east coast of Florida by the middle of this week. A developing area of low pressure east of the Bahamas should further organize over the next day or so before making a turn to the west toward Florida thanks to a large ridge parked over the eastern half the U.S.

As the system approaches by the middle of the week, a turn to the north will begin to take place. Timing and location of impacts will be dictated by how far the system comes across the state before making that turn to the north – something that we’ll get a better handle on once the storm actually forms. If it does indeed make landfall, it would happen at some point on Wednesday.

While gusty winds and periods of rain will likely spread across the state through the day on Thursday, by far the biggest impact from this will be coastal flooding on the East Coast as strong onshore flow combines with some of the highest astronomical tides of the year.

For those on the west coast of Florida – especially in areas hard hit by Hurricane Ian – rest assured that storms with this angle of approach usually are more of a nuisance than anything else in terms of impacts around. That being said, some tropical storm-force wind gusts and periods of rain wouldn’t exactly be ideal for folks still trying to recover. We’ll keep you posted.