After a fairly active start to the season with Arlene, Bret and Cindy developing in the month of June, things are looking quieter to kick off the second month of hurricane season. Dry air from the Saharan Air Layer and areas of wind shear are keeping tropical activity low. No tropical development is expected across the Atlantic basin over the next 7 days, per the National Hurricane Center.

During the month of July, the tropical formation zone expands, including parts of the western Atlantic and waters east of the Lesser Antilles. However, as we’ve seen in the month of June, abnormally warm water temperatures in the main development region has already proved to be productive this season and it will be an area to watch closely going forward.

In general, July tends to be another quiet month before activity typically begins to ramp up in August and September.

It’s fairly quiet in the Atlantic basin right now. The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disorganized storms south-southeast of Bermuda. Right now, upper-level winds will prevent this cluster of storms to develop into anything tropical. There is only a 10% chance of development with this system.

Thankfully, there isn’t much to expect right now in the Atlantic due to the Saharan Air Layer settling over the ocean from Africa. This will make the environment less favorable for any tropical development. However, Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are still above average for this time of year, which is why we have seen an uptick in activity at times this season.

Despite the lack of activity currently, it is important to remember that we still have a long way to go in hurricane season. On average, the tropics become more active over the next month or so.