The tropical wave we’ve been watching is slowly getting organized and the chance for it to form is now up to 70% in the next 7 days.

The disturbance is still about a week away from the Caribbean Islands and will be moving west-northwest the next few days. It’s currently just south of the Cabo Verde islands fighting off some Saharan dust.

There is a good chance this becomes a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gabrielle as it moves into an area more favorable for strengthening by later this week.

The steering will continue to guide the area west but long-term models highlight a series of strong dips in the jet stream that would help protect Florida and the East Coast.

We could see a track similar to Erin with a curve north in the Atlantic, near or east of the Bahamas. A westerly path with more implications for the islands is not out of the question.

We’re looking out 7-10 days so we’ll be watching how fast it starts moving, what the steering guidance will be during that timeframe, and how model trends evolve once it forms.

Odds are increasing that a tropical wave that has just emerged off Africa’s coastline will develop into a tropical depression or storm within the next week. The National Hurricane Center has now given the disturbance a medium (40%) chance of development.

For now, this is a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms a little over a hundred miles off the coast of Guinea-Bissau.

This disturbance will likely become more organized as it moves across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week. It’s still too early to accurately predict where it would go if it develops. Regardless, we’ll have over ten days to keep an eye on the system and there are no imminent tropical threats for Florida.

The next name on our 2025 storm naming list would be Gabrielle.