We’re closely watching the progression of Tropical Storm Idalia which continues to meander near the Yucatan peninsula. The storm forming late Sunday morning after Hurricane Hunter data showed it had strengthened from a depression. Idalia is currently impacting the region with heavy rain and gusty winds. The storm likely won’t move much over the next 24 hours as high pressure to the north and Franklin to its east keep it relatively stationary.

By Monday, Idalia is forecast to slowly move north as it’s picked up by a developing trough to the west of the storm and a building ridge to the east.

Models are beginning to come into agreement on a track to our west but there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding how close the system comes to the Tampa Bay area. Everyone along Florida’s Gulf coast should prepare for potentially significant impacts from this storm, whether direct or indirect.

We’re also seeing a signal for a stronger storm on approach that is likely to reach hurricane strength before landfall and a strong hurricane isn’t off the table. Water temps are exceptionally warm in the southern Gulf and Idalia is expected to be fueled by generally favorable conditions for intensification.

It’s important to remember that local impacts will depend on the exact strength of the storm and where exactly it goes. Tens of miles will make a difference.  At this point, it’s fair to say tropical downpours and squally weather could begin late Tuesday through Wednesday with the worst weather along the coast. Strong winds could lead to power outages as well as storm surge and coastal flooding, especially during periods of high tide. Stay tuned for updates.

We’re closely watching the NW Caribbean this weekend where a system could organize and bring impacts to the Gulf coast next week.

As of Saturday morning, Invest 93L remains a tropical disturbance showing signs of organization near the Yucatan Peninsula. However, development is likely once it moves into a more favorable environment in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 70% chance of formation over the next 2 days and 90% chance over the next 7 days. 

Confidence is growing on at least some local impacts as most models are coming into more consistent agreement on a strengthening tropical system moving into the eastern Gulf early next week. 

A tropical depression could form as early as Sunday. Then, warm waters in the Gulf are forecast to support some intensification. We’ll have to monitor how the storm interacts with upper level wind shear, which could be a limiting factor. Right now, the system which would be named ‘Idalia’ is expected to become a tropical storm, but it could reach category 1 hurricane intensity before landfall somewhere along the Big Bend to the Florida Panhandle. The track forecast is not set in stone and will depend on a digging trough in the Southeast which will steer the system.

While it’s too early to discuss specifics as the storm hasn’t yet formed and we don’t have a center of circulation, local impacts are becoming more likely. Although the worst weather would be felt closest to the storm’s center, much needed rainfall, coastal flooding, gusty winds and some power outages are general possibilities on arrival. The forecast will come into better focus once a storm develops either late Sunday or Monday.