The area we’ve been watching in the SW Gulf of Mexico has now officially been designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center. Chances are increasing this develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm by midweek.

The NHC is giving the system a 70% chance to develop in the next 2 days, along with a 70% chance in the next 7 days.

Near the Bay of Campeche, conditions are favorable for a broad area of low pressure to form and start moving northwest. From there, warm waters in the Gulf offer plenty of fuel for this storm to strengthen as it approaches the coast.

This will bring a threat for flooding along the western Gulf Coast as Invest 91L pulls in deep tropical moisture, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

Texas and mainland Mexico look to get the brunt of the heavy rain. Winds will increase out of the south and southeast, bringing high surf and rip currents as well.

Meanwhile, a strong ride of high pressure sitting over the East Coast will help steer this storm away from Florida.

There is another system the NHC is watching for additional development near the Bahamas.

This one has a lower chance for development, only 30% over the next week. There is some drier air that this storm will have to battle with as it approaches the Southeast coast later this week.

As the storm pulls in tropical moisture, this still could could bring heavy rain to the SE regardless of tropical development. We’ll watch for impacts to the Atlantic Coast later in the week, mainly Thursday – Friday.

Invest 90L is moving away from Florida which caused massive flooding over portions of the state this weekend. The likelihood of formation from this low is small because of strong upper-level wind shear.

Attention now turns to the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Presently, there is not much happening in this region. Models are coming more agreement that an area of low pressure will form in the Bay of Campeche late weekend and into early next week. This is an area that is currently favorable for development because of warm waters and light wind shear.

Our high resolution Fox Model indicates gradual development of this system early next week as it drifts slowly toward Mexico. At this point, we may have our first tropical depression of the hurricane season and will be watching to see if this becomes Tropical Storm Alberto, which is the first name on the 2024 list of names. Regardless of any development of this system, it will not pose a risk to Florida.

Earlier this week NOAA officially announced that El Niño is over and we are now in ENSO neutral conditions and expected to transition into La Niña over the summer months. This was expected and something that has been factored into the hurricane season forecast. The transition into La Niña along with above average SST all point to a very active hurricane season, one that has the potential to be one of the most active ever.

Cooling waters in the Pacific Ocean indicate the end of El Niño which have now transitioned us into ENSO neutral conditions.