We’ve had Invest 99L on the map for a while now as it has made its way across the Atlantic over the last week and a half or so. It’s a disturbance that refuses to give up, but has never been able to gain any ground due to an on & off battle with wind shear and dry air.

On Friday afternoon, it was a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. There have been flare-ups of convection at times, but still no indication of a closed circulation. Upper level winds are becoming a little more favorable for development as we head into the weekend, but it will still have to contend with some pockets of dry air. The National Hurricane Center currently has development odds at 50% over the next 5 days. However, our latest model runs still aren’t too excited about any development with system… keeping it an open wave through the rest of its journey.

Whether or not a tropical depression, or even Gert, forms; steering flow should keep this well offshore as it moves north and northeast up the eastern seaboard.

On Wednesday afternoon, Hurricane Franklin formed over the Bay of Campeche before making landfall late Wednesday night and rapidly weakening this morning. The formation date of August 9th was just one day shy of the average formation date of the Atlantic season’s first hurricane. The season’s first hurricane brought several inches of rainfall and sustained winds as high as 85 mph to portions of eastern Mexico. Looking forward, there is a slight chance that Franklin’s remains regenerate over the eastern Pacific.

Back in the Atlantic, Invest 99L continues to fight despite slim development chances. On Thursday afternoon, the disturbance was located a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles. It will have a window this weekend as wind shear in its path begins to decrease. Recent runs of both the GFS & ECMWF have low expectations for Invest 99L, keeping it an open wave as it moves NNE of the Bahamas by Sunday evening.