Even though we’re entering the active part of hurricane season, we are expecting quiet conditions for the next several days. Tropical waves continue to develop but don’t organize into anything other than a cluster of showers and storms.

A couple of factors are keeping the waves from developing, dry air and pockets of strong wind shear. You can see on the Saharan Air Layer Forecast, dust extends from the coast of Africa into the Eastern Caribbean through Thursday.

In the graphic above, light blue and green indicate areas of stronger winds. Notice there are several pockets of strong winds along Africa’s coast into the Atlantic and over the Caribbean. Parts of the Caribbean will see heavy rain associated with the tropical waves but that is the extent of tropical activity into the weekend.

The chances of development for the tropical wave west of the Lesser Antilles is dwindling. What is a disorganized area of showers and storms will continue moving west northwest over the next several days. It will bring rain to parts of the Caribbean but do little else.

Dry air is sitting over the western Caribbean and helps inhibit organization.

The wave not only has dry air to deal with but also strong wind shear. Wind shear shaves off the tops of thunderstorms and keeps them from strengthening and organizing. Both of these factors only give the wave a 10% chance of development.