Odds are gradually increasing for a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm by the middle or end of next week. The National Hurricane Center has now given the disturbance a 70% chance of formation within the next week.

The majority of our weather models, including the Fox Weather Model, now show this system organizing later this week.

Dry, stable air is limiting its development in the short term.

Warmer waters and reduced wind shear lie ahead of the disturbance. Early indications suggest a weakness in high pressure to its north would likely steer anything that develops northward and away from Florida. Our weather models will become more reliable once, or if, this system forms.

“Gabrielle” would be the next name used from our 2025 storm naming list.

We continue to monitor only one area of potential development in the Atlantic. A tropical wave, set to emerge off the coast of Africa within the next day or so, has now been assigned a low 30% chance of formation within the next week.

In their latest update, the NHC has identified where the tropical wave is currently located with a yellow “x”.

As this disturbance pushes west, it will eventually encounter an environment more conducive to development. Warmer sea surface temperatures, lower wind shear, and the potential to encounter less Saharan dust could all encourage its eventual development early next week.

Multiple weather models now hint at development within the same time frame. This tropical wave is over 4,000 miles away from the Mainland United States coastline, giving us a long time to keep an eye on it. No tropical trouble is anticipated for Florida within the next week.