A tropical depression or storm is likely to develop in the Bay of Campeche within the next 48 hours. This is not a threat to Florida.The National Hurricane Center now gives Invest 91L a high (70%) chance of formation.

Models overwhelmingly favor a westward track into Mexico, keeping it well away from us.Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings may be needed for parts of the Mexican Gulf Coast later today.

If the system becomes a tropical storm, “Barry” is the next name on our storm naming list.

We are monitoring a cluster of thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean Sea that, after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, will have a chance of development in the Bay of Campeche. The NHC is giving the disturbance a low (20%) chance of formation within the next week. Chances will likely rise if the system remains over water.

Most weather models that do develop this, keep it moving west towards Mexico. Early indications suggest that this is unlikely to bring any impacts to Florida.

The next name on our 2025 Atlantic storm naming list would be Barry.