‘Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine’ is what we have moving through the Bahamas today. This designation is used by the National Hurricane Center when a storm has yet to form, but it is expected to form soon close to land. It allows them to issue watches/warnings for areas that may be impacted within 48 hours. Tropical Storm Humberto is likely to form any time within the next 24-36 hours.

As of 11am Friday, this system was located about 190 miles ESE of Great Abaco Island. Mind you, that area, along with Grand Bahama, was completely devastated by Hurricane Dorian less than 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately, they’ll have to deal with some very gusty winds and heavy rainfall from this disturbance today and Saturday before it moves further north on Sunday. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for all of the Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island.

Moderate southwesterly shear has kept this system from getting further organized, but that shear should gradually diminish over the next day or two, allowing Tropical Storm Humberto to form off Florida’s East Coast. Majority of model guidance continues to show a storm moving northwest, then north, then northeast, along with gradual strengthening. In addition, there is increasing confidence that Humberto will stay offshore.

For Florida, a track off the East Coast almost always leads to minimal impacts, especially with a tropical storm. For now, those on the East Coast can expect off and on rain with gusty winds, possibly up to tropical storm-force, from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning, along with high surf. A tropical storm watch is in effect from the Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia co. line. On the west coast of the state, impacts will be limited to a couple windy days with a few fast-moving showers.

At 5pm Thursday, the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine’. This designation is used when they’re expecting a storm to form close to land. It allows them to issue watches/warnings for areas that may be impacted within 48 hours. Tropical Storm Humberto is likely to form within the next day or two.

Majority of model guidance develops the system near the Northwestern Bahamas, and then moves it north just off Florida’s East Coast. That is the solution we’re leaning toward right now. Either way, the areas hit hard by Hurricane Dorian just a few weeks ago will unfortunately be impacted by tropical downpours and gusty winds over the next 2-3 days. Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for those islands.

For Florida, a track off the East Coast almost always leads to minimal impacts, especially with a weaker system. For now, those on the on the East Coast can expect off and on rain with gusty winds, possibly up to tropical storm-force, mainly Sunday and Monday, along with high surf. On the west coast of the state, any impacts would be limited to a couple breezy days with a few fast-moving showers.

While a storm moving up the East Coast is the most likely scenario, there is still the possibility of a weaker system moving further west. This would lead to higher rain chances across the entire state and along the Gulf Coast. We should be able to nail down the forecast within the next day or so.