At 5pm Thursday, the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine’. This designation is used when they’re expecting a storm to form close to land. It allows them to issue watches/warnings for areas that may be impacted within 48 hours. Tropical Storm Humberto is likely to form within the next day or two.

Majority of model guidance develops the system near the Northwestern Bahamas, and then moves it north just off Florida’s East Coast. That is the solution we’re leaning toward right now. Either way, the areas hit hard by Hurricane Dorian just a few weeks ago will unfortunately be impacted by tropical downpours and gusty winds over the next 2-3 days. Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for those islands.

For Florida, a track off the East Coast almost always leads to minimal impacts, especially with a weaker system. For now, those on the on the East Coast can expect off and on rain with gusty winds, possibly up to tropical storm-force, mainly Sunday and Monday, along with high surf. On the west coast of the state, any impacts would be limited to a couple breezy days with a few fast-moving showers.

While a storm moving up the East Coast is the most likely scenario, there is still the possibility of a weaker system moving further west. This would lead to higher rain chances across the entire state and along the Gulf Coast. We should be able to nail down the forecast within the next day or so.