As of 2pm Sunday, Arthur was located about 300 miles SSW of Cape Hatteras, NC. It will continue moving NNE over the next 24-48 hours while picking up forward speed. On the current track it will pass near or just east of the North Carolina coast on Monday. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Surf City to Duck, NC.

Arthur is a lopsided storm, with the worst of the weather on its eastern side. So, with the current track, the strongest winds should stay offshore. That being said, tropical storm force winds will still be possible along the immediate coast. In addition, 1-3″ of rain is likely for parts of coastal NC. It should be noted though that much of the Eastern U.S. will have quite a bit of rain around anyway over the next few days thanks to an upper-level spinning over the Southeast.

Arthur will continue to generate large swells along the Southeast U.S. coast up through the mid-Atlantic over the next 2-3 days, which may lead to rough surf and a high rip current risk for beachgoers.

And we’re off! The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane is off to an early start, as Tropical Depression One has formed this evening about 125 miles off the east coast of Florida.

While the surrounding environment is quite dry, wind shear is light and this system will be riding along the warm Gulf Stream as it moves north-northeast. As a result, slow and steady strengthening is anticipated – with Tropical Storm Arthur likely forming Saturday night or early Sunday.

With weak systems like this, it’s tough for models to get a good handle on things. A general north-northeast track is expected the next few days, but just how close soon-to-be Arthur will get to the Outer Banks of North Carolina is a bit uncertain. For now, a tropical storm watch has been issued from Surf City, NC to Duck, NC.