Activity has gradually begin to pick up across the Atlantic basin in the last week. Back on Sunday, we mentioned a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa that had a medium chance for some weak development. However, the large amounts of dry air and Saharan dust across the Central Atlantic have simply proved to be too prohibitive.

There is a new area of interest in the Gulf that has popped up in the last day or so, as a trough of low pressure has developed just offshore of SE Louisiana. Any organization of this will be slow to occur as this moves southwest, and the National Hurricane Center is currently only giving this a 10% chance of development. Regardless, locally heavy rain will be possible along parts of the Texas Coast through the weekend.

For the first time in a long time, there is something to track in the Atlantic. A tropical wave emerged off the West African coast on Sunday, and currently has a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days.

There has been a decent amount of convection being sustained throughout the day, and environment conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development over the next few days. Saharan dust is still quite prevalent across the central Atlantic, which is ultimately going to be a primary limiting factor.

Models, at this stage, don’t provide a whole lot of value; and there isn’t a whole of agreement anyway. The most aggressive solutions are recent runs of the GFS, which show a moderate tropical storm forming later this week. Either way, this shouldn’t be an issue for the U.S. However, it’s a good reminder that activity is on the upswing.