For the first time in a long time, there is something to track in the Atlantic. A tropical wave emerged off the West African coast on Sunday, and currently has a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days.

There has been a decent amount of convection being sustained throughout the day, and environment conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development over the next few days. Saharan dust is still quite prevalent across the central Atlantic, which is ultimately going to be a primary limiting factor.

Models, at this stage, don’t provide a whole lot of value; and there isn’t a whole of agreement anyway. The most aggressive solutions are recent runs of the GFS, which show a moderate tropical storm forming later this week. Either way, this shouldn’t be an issue for the U.S. However, it’s a good reminder that activity is on the upswing.