Hurricane Milton just reached Category 4 strength with 150 MPH winds. Pressure has dropped to 940 mb as Milton continues on an ESE path.

This storm has been taking advantage of the warm water and low wind shear environment it’s been moving through.

The latest track has dipped the storm slightly south, bringing it even closer to the Yucatan Peninsula, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Celestun to Rio Lagartos.

We anticipate landfall later in the day Wednesday, possibly even closer to sunset, as the trend has slowed down some. The latest cone from the National Hurricane Center calls for a Category 3 with 120 MPH winds ahead of landfall.

One silver lining is the possibility that this storm weakens slightly ahead of landfall. Once it starts to jog NE, it will run into a harsh environment with strong wind shear.

The thinking is this will interact with the storm enough to knock it down in strength from Tuesday – Wednesday. While this is overall good news, it won’t make a big impact to the overall threats this storm birngs.

Here’s the initial storm surge forecast:

This paints the worst case scenario but it’s a scenario we need to be ready for. Storm Surge Watch runs along the coast from Suwanee to Flamingo.

Since this is a smaller storm, hurricane-force-winds will be focused across a small area around the storm’s eye. Here’s the latest thinking:

The pink color along the coast is the potential from 110+ MPH winds. Red color highlights 74-110 MPH winds. Orange is the potential for 58-73 MPH winds.

Unlike Helene, this storm is not just a coastal concern.

Milton is forecast to slice across the Peninsula, so tropical-storm conditions are expected inland, along with heavy rainfall.

Rainfall of 5-10″ looks likely for most of central Florida, with areas closer to landfall getting closer to a foot of rain.

The latest model trends continue to lean towards Tampa, and unfortunately some now are bumped even farther north. This would be the worst scenario as storm surge would funnel directly into Tampa Bay.

There are still models that track Milton south of Tampa Bay. This is critical to who will see the worst of the storm surge. If it hits south of Tampa, winds will be moving offshore and storm surge will be a big concern around Sarasota.

We’re talking a 10 mile difference in Milton’s track making a HUGE different for impacts here in Tampa Bay.

Tropical Depression 14 is getting organized in a hurry and the first track is out for this developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

The initial forecast calls for this to become a Category 2 hurricane just ahead of landfall on Wednesday.

The area is already looking healthy Saturday morning with sustained winds of 35 mph and higher gusts.

Right now, the Gulf of Mexico is a very favorable environment for strengthening. As this area heads east, this is expected to become Tropical Storm Milton later today.

Here’s what model trends are showing. This area will generally travel east before curving more NE. All of Florida’s West Coast should be closely watching this storm.

There is a spread in models from Florida’s Big Bend to south of the state, but most consensus tracks the area towards Tampa Bay.

Hurricane Hunters are set to start flying in Invest 92-L so we will learn more and likely see adjustments to the general track/strength of this storm.

Rounds of heavy rain will start for Florida Sunday as the storm approaches from the west. Wednesday looks like the timeframe where landfall would occur, before the storm crosses the state and emerges into the Atlantic.

The exact track will determine storm surge impacts, strongest winds, and where heaviest rainfall will occur. We are certain of the heavy rain on the way for the state, with several inches of rainfall mainly Monday – Wednesday.

Models have been wavering between the strength so it’s too soon to say exactly what kind of winds we’ll get from this storm. Some models have it as a tropical storm, others are showing a Category 2 hurricane.

The point of landfall is crucial and we’ll be fine tuning that. South of the center is where the worst of the storm surge will occur, but heaviest rains likely occur north of the storm’s center.

The timing hasn’t changed. The worst of the weather will be on Wednesday and the storm will be done here by Wednesday night. More updated to come – stay tuned!