An area we’ve been monitoring in the Gulf now has a 20% development chance from the National Hurricane Center. The odds still remain low: 0% over the next 2 days and 20% over the next 7 days.

The timeframe we’re watching is this Saturday through next Wednesday as something tries to form and move northeast.

There will be increased moisture and tropical downpours across Florida and parts of the SE regardless of development.

There are several things working against a tropical system: land interaction, wind shear and dry air.

The area of low pressure would spin up in the northeastern Gulf where water temps are plenty warm for a tropical storm, in the upper 80s to near 90.

How close that happens to Florida will be a big factor in something forming. If circulation remains over the warm Gulf waters, it is not out of the question to see quick organization.

To be classified has a tropical system, there needs to be a defined circulation with thunderstorms organized around it. Once max sustained winds reach 39 mph, it’s a tropical storm and is given a name.

If this area tagged in the Gulf and SE reaches that feat, it will be named Tropical Storm Bertha.

The second named storm of the season, in this case Bertha, usually forms on or by July 17.

The area we’ve been watching off the southeast coast has a very limited chance of developing and is expected to fizzle out.

It currently has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days and the environment becomes even less favorable past that as dry air moves into the area.

Outside of this, things are quiet as Saharan dust drifts across the Atlantic and parts of the Caribbean.

This dust significantly dries out the atmosphere and suppresses tropical activity. The Saharan Air Layer starts about 1 mile above the surface and has 50% less moisture than standard tropical air.

Bertha is the next name in line this season.

On average, the B storm forms by July 17.