The odds are high for a system in the Caribbean to strengthen within the next few days. The area is now designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center.

The NHC has upgraded the chances to 80% that this forms over the next 7 days. There’s also a high chance it could develop by the end of this weekend.

The broad low pressure area in the central Caribbean is currently just producing disorganized storms. Sustained winds are 25mph.

The other area of interest just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola has much lower develop odds. Slow development is possible over the weekend, but this area is likely to be absorbed by the stronger tropical wave to its south.

By Tuesday, these two areas are expected to merge into one system near Cuba.

Once Invest 97L is near Cuba, the models start to spread out significantly as the steering flow gets tricky.

This area will move into the Gulf of Mexico around the middle or end of the week. But from there, models take it anywhere from Florida’s West Coast to Mexico.

So here’s the big picture: a ridge across the SE will block the area from moving north.

Once it gets into the Gulf, exactly where a dip in the jet stream is will be a key component to guide the storm.

The good news is oceanic heat content is much cooler in the Gulf compared to what it was in August/September. The Caribbean has much more heat in comparison, but Gulf waters are less favorable to sustain a tropical system.

Other factors the system will have to battle in the Gulf: drier air and hostile upper winds. A cold front dropping south to the Gulf Coast will increase wind shear, which will limit development.

Many models are keeping this as a tropical storm, but there is still uncertainty in the potential strength. We will watch it and keep you updated.

Rafael is the next name in line.

Hurricane Milton just reached Category 4 strength with 150 MPH winds. Pressure has dropped to 940 mb as Milton continues on an ESE path.

This storm has been taking advantage of the warm water and low wind shear environment it’s been moving through.

The latest track has dipped the storm slightly south, bringing it even closer to the Yucatan Peninsula, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Celestun to Rio Lagartos.

We anticipate landfall later in the day Wednesday, possibly even closer to sunset, as the trend has slowed down some. The latest cone from the National Hurricane Center calls for a Category 3 with 120 MPH winds ahead of landfall.

One silver lining is the possibility that this storm weakens slightly ahead of landfall. Once it starts to jog NE, it will run into a harsh environment with strong wind shear.

The thinking is this will interact with the storm enough to knock it down in strength from Tuesday – Wednesday. While this is overall good news, it won’t make a big impact to the overall threats this storm birngs.

Here’s the initial storm surge forecast:

This paints the worst case scenario but it’s a scenario we need to be ready for. Storm Surge Watch runs along the coast from Suwanee to Flamingo.

Since this is a smaller storm, hurricane-force-winds will be focused across a small area around the storm’s eye. Here’s the latest thinking:

The pink color along the coast is the potential from 110+ MPH winds. Red color highlights 74-110 MPH winds. Orange is the potential for 58-73 MPH winds.

Unlike Helene, this storm is not just a coastal concern.

Milton is forecast to slice across the Peninsula, so tropical-storm conditions are expected inland, along with heavy rainfall.

Rainfall of 5-10″ looks likely for most of central Florida, with areas closer to landfall getting closer to a foot of rain.

The latest model trends continue to lean towards Tampa, and unfortunately some now are bumped even farther north. This would be the worst scenario as storm surge would funnel directly into Tampa Bay.

There are still models that track Milton south of Tampa Bay. This is critical to who will see the worst of the storm surge. If it hits south of Tampa, winds will be moving offshore and storm surge will be a big concern around Sarasota.

We’re talking a 10 mile difference in Milton’s track making a HUGE different for impacts here in Tampa Bay.