Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday morning with sustained winds up to 45 mph in the latest advisory.

Previously named Invest 97L, thunderstorms west of the Cabo Verde Islands have continued to organize despite Saharan dust concentrated nearby this disturbance.

The first cone is out for Tropical Storm Erin and shows it steadily strengthening.

Erin is moving west at 20 mph and will continue on this track the next few days. There is more uncertainty at the end of this week into the weekend.

The upper level steering will eventually support a curve north as it rides around the ridge of high pressure. There will be a dip in the jet stream that will help to nudge it north.

How far east of Florida and the Atlantic Coast will this happen? That is something we’re ironing out as we watch for this to form and see how model trends evolve.

Check back for updates as we closely monitor model trends on Tropical Storm Erin.

We’ve been watching a few waves kick off the coast of Africa and Invest 97L has a good chance to form in the week ahead. The development odds have steadily been climbing for this area – now 80% in the next 7 days.

The yellow highlighted area, Invest 96L, is looking less impressive as it battles Saharan dust. This area will continue to weaken the next few days.

Behind it, the tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa is producing a large area of storms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

This could become the first hurricane of the season as it moves west-northwest. There is a lot of runway for strengthening and conditions are favorable for this to become a tropical depression around the middle of this week.

It will face some challenges from dry air and dust over the Atlantic. But as it gets closer to the Caribbean, the atmosphere is more favorable for it to strengthen.

Currently trends favor a turn north that would keep this east of Florida and the East Coast given the upper steering pattern. It is too early for high confidence in any track and we will look for model consistency over the next few days.

This is about a week out so we will watch it evolve and keep you updated.

Erin is the next name in line. August 11 is the average date the first hurricane of the season forms in the Atlantic.