We’re monitoring Invest 91L in the eastern Gulf, which has a chance of developing over the next few days. This is the same broad area of low pressure has been bumping up central Florida’s coastal rain totals these past few days. For now, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 50% chance of development within the next week.

The latest trends continue to keep any potential system moving away from the Tampa Bay area if it develops. A weaker, less organized system likely travels farther north. Most westward plots account for a slightly stronger system.

For us, the expected impacts have hardly changed. Expect higher rain chances for our coastal communities through Monday. It won’t be an all-day washout, but you can expect a round or two of showers and storms each day.

Rain chances continue to rise along other areas along the northern Gulf coast.

If Invest 91L organizes and strengthens enough to become a tropical storm, it would be named Bertha. It’s worth noting that environmental conditions in the Gulf aren’t especially favorable for rapid strengthening, which is why most forecast models that show development keep the system relatively weak.

As we turn the calendar to July, the Atlantic is off to a quiet start. With the National Hurricane Center no longer tracking the disturbance off the Southeast coast, no tropical development is expected over the next seven days.

Forecast models suggest this quiet pattern could last even longer. One of the biggest reasons is El Niño, which is producing stronger winds high in the atmosphere. Those winds make it much harder for tropical systems to organize. At the same time, the Pacific has weaker upper-level winds, helping fuel a more active hurricane season there.

Another factor keeping the Atlantic quiet is Saharan dust. Thick plumes of dry, dusty air have spread across the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and parts of the Gulf over the past several weeks. This dry air limits thunderstorm development, making it more difficult for tropical systems to strengthen. Long-range forecast models suggest the dust will continue to be a factor through much of July.

So far, Arthur remains the Atlantic’s only named storm of the 2026 hurricane season. At this point last year, we had already seen two named storms, with a third developing on July 4th.

Historically, July accounts for about 8% of all Atlantic named storms. Most systems that develop this month form closer to the U.S. East Coast or in the northern Gulf rather than deep in the tropical Atlantic. While the Atlantic looks quiet for now, hurricane season is still in its early stages. Activity typically begins to ramp up in August before reaching its peak in September, so it’s still a good time to make sure your hurricane plans are in place.