Odds of development continue to rise (now at 80%) for a tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

The majority of weather models develop this into at least a tropical depression within the next week.

While battling dry air in the short term, it will eventually track into a more favorable environment with warmer sea surface temperatures as it nears the Leeward Islands. These islands will need to monitor the progress of this system carefully over the coming days.

A weaker system (disturbance or tropical depression) would likely track farther west, while a quickly organizing and strengthening tropical storm or hurricane would likely be steered north quickly.

It is moving very slowly (10mph at times) across the central tropical Atlantic. Most long range models eventually pull this system north well before reaching Florida, although we will have more clarity and accuracy with our weather models when we actually have a storm to track. We have 10+ days to monitor this in the mainland United States before this would bring us any impacts.

The next name on our 2025 storm naming list is Gabrielle.

Odds are increasing that a tropical wave that has just emerged off Africa’s coastline will develop into a tropical depression or storm within the next week. The National Hurricane Center has now given the disturbance a medium (40%) chance of development.

For now, this is a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms a little over a hundred miles off the coast of Guinea-Bissau.

This disturbance will likely become more organized as it moves across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week. It’s still too early to accurately predict where it would go if it develops. Regardless, we’ll have over ten days to keep an eye on the system and there are no imminent tropical threats for Florida.

The next name on our 2025 storm naming list would be Gabrielle.