We are keeping tabs on only one disturbance in the Atlantic after Rafael weakened into a Post-Tropical Cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. 

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this spot a low (20%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days as it drifts westward. It’s too early to speculate on the exact path this system would take if it forms. 

The next name on this year’s storm naming list is Sara.

Odds of development are climbing for a new named storm to form in the Caribbean within the next week. The National Hurricane Center has now increased the odds of development to 50%.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in the southwestern Caribbean over the next few days. This low could organize into a tropical depression as it moves north/northwestward by the start of next week. Not all weather models form this system and there is still disagreement about the possible path a developed storm would take.

The Caribbean has low wind shear and abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the mid-80s, two ideal ingredients in the formation of hurricanes. Countries that are in or border the Central and Western Caribbean coastline will need to monitor the progress of this disturbance for the next several days.

If this system entered the Gulf of Mexico it would be in a less favorable environment for strengthening than the Caribbean. The Gulf of Mexico will have significantly cooler waters than the Caribbean and increasing wind shear to the north.

It is still early in the forecast process. We will need to wait and see where a storm does (or doesn’t) develop to have a better idea of who could see impacts from it. The next name on our 2024 Atlantic Season Naming List is “Patty”.