Oscar has weakened to a tropical storm after making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Cuba this evening. Increasing wind shear and interaction with the mountainous terrain of Eastern Cuba contributed to the storm’s weakening.

This will not be a threat to Florida. Upper-level winds will eventually steer this system to the northeast by Tuesday morning. From there, it will likely maintain that general trajectory, keeping it away from the United States. Bermuda will still need to monitor the progress of Oscar.

There are no additional named storms or areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic at this time.

The odds of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico have slightly risen back to a medium (40%) chance within the next week.

Several weather models have shown the potential for the remnants of a Tropical Depression Eleven in the Pacific to lift into the Gulf of Mexico and provide a more distinct area of low pressure for development. This is an early trend in the models and will need to be watched for consistency. There is no imminent threat for development, and this would be something for us to monitor into the middle/end of next week.

Regardless of formation, the Florida Peninsula is still expected to see elevated rain chances to end the weekend and start next week.

In the central Atlantic, we still have Kirk and Leslie.

Kirk is a powerful category 4 hurricane and Leslie is a strengthening tropical storm. Each of these systems are expected to turn away from Florida.