The odds of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico have slightly risen back to a medium (40%) chance within the next week.

Several weather models have shown the potential for the remnants of a Tropical Depression Eleven in the Pacific to lift into the Gulf of Mexico and provide a more distinct area of low pressure for development. This is an early trend in the models and will need to be watched for consistency. There is no imminent threat for development, and this would be something for us to monitor into the middle/end of next week.

Regardless of formation, the Florida Peninsula is still expected to see elevated rain chances to end the weekend and start next week.

In the central Atlantic, we still have Kirk and Leslie.

Kirk is a powerful category 4 hurricane and Leslie is a strengthening tropical storm. Each of these systems are expected to turn away from Florida.

We are closely monitoring development chances in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of formation to 40% within the next seven days.

This development would stem from the Central American Gyre, a seasonal region of low pressure that can occasionally spin up more focused areas of low pressure.

The organized low can then strengthen into a named storm. Weather models are indicating the growing chances for this process to occur later this month. If that development were to form in the Caribbean, it would likely be pulled north or northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. There are still a number of unsolved variables that would shape the system’s path beyond that point.

Thus, it is too early to speculate on exactly where this would head next within the Gulf. The Gulf coast will need to carefully monitor the progress of this slowly organizing system over the next week or two.

Now is as good a time as any to ensure you have a hurricane kit and plan in place as we are still within what has statistically been our most active month of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.