Odds of development are climbing for a new named storm to form in the Caribbean within the next week. The National Hurricane Center has now increased the odds of development to 50%.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop in the southwestern Caribbean over the next few days. This low could organize into a tropical depression as it moves north/northwestward by the start of next week. Not all weather models form this system and there is still disagreement about the possible path a developed storm would take.

The Caribbean has low wind shear and abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the mid-80s, two ideal ingredients in the formation of hurricanes. Countries that are in or border the Central and Western Caribbean coastline will need to monitor the progress of this disturbance for the next several days.

If this system entered the Gulf of Mexico it would be in a less favorable environment for strengthening than the Caribbean. The Gulf of Mexico will have significantly cooler waters than the Caribbean and increasing wind shear to the north.

It is still early in the forecast process. We will need to wait and see where a storm does (or doesn’t) develop to have a better idea of who could see impacts from it. The next name on our 2024 Atlantic Season Naming List is “Patty”.

Oscar has weakened to a tropical storm after making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Cuba this evening. Increasing wind shear and interaction with the mountainous terrain of Eastern Cuba contributed to the storm’s weakening.

This will not be a threat to Florida. Upper-level winds will eventually steer this system to the northeast by Tuesday morning. From there, it will likely maintain that general trajectory, keeping it away from the United States. Bermuda will still need to monitor the progress of Oscar.

There are no additional named storms or areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic at this time.