We are still tracking Invest 91L as it drifts across the central tropical Atlantic. The National Weather Service has now dropped its 7-day development odds to 60%.

In the last 24 hours weather model support has dropped substantially, as drier air brought on by Saharan Dust has shrouded the disturbance. This had led to an additional drop of the odds of development over the next two days to 30%.

While many forecast models now dissipate the system, many still develop it into at least a tropical depression as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. These islands will still need to watch the progression of Invest 91L carefully before it possibly reaches the islands by the middle to end of next week.

The disturbance is moving very slowly (less than 10 mph at times) and will give the United States well over a week to monitor it if it forms.

The next name on our 2025 storm naming list is Gabrielle.

Odds of development continue to rise (now at 80%) for a tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

The majority of weather models develop this into at least a tropical depression within the next week.

While battling dry air in the short term, it will eventually track into a more favorable environment with warmer sea surface temperatures as it nears the Leeward Islands. These islands will need to monitor the progress of this system carefully over the coming days.

A weaker system (disturbance or tropical depression) would likely track farther west, while a quickly organizing and strengthening tropical storm or hurricane would likely be steered north quickly.

It is moving very slowly (10mph at times) across the central tropical Atlantic. Most long range models eventually pull this system north well before reaching Florida, although we will have more clarity and accuracy with our weather models when we actually have a storm to track. We have 10+ days to monitor this in the mainland United States before this would bring us any impacts.

The next name on our 2025 storm naming list is Gabrielle.