The Atlantic remains quiet after Sara dissipated in the Gulf of Mexico early Monday morning. Thankfully, there is no additional activity expected over the next seven days.

NOAA’s latest Global Tropics Hazards Outlook is calling for a relatively quiet end to the season. At the moment, tropical cyclone formation is unlikely (below 20%) from November 27th through December 3rd.

This forecast takes us well beyond the official end of our hurricane season that runs through November 3oth.

We are keeping tabs on only one disturbance in the Atlantic after Rafael weakened into a Post-Tropical Cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. 

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this spot a low (20%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days as it drifts westward. It’s too early to speculate on the exact path this system would take if it forms. 

The next name on this year’s storm naming list is Sara.