Hurricane Erin has reorganized into a Category 4 storm tonight and has gradually grown in size over the past few days.

There has been no significant change to its projected path. The storm’s center is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Florida before curving northeast, keeping its core entirely offshore of the U.S. East Coast.

Even without a direct hit, Erin’s close pass will generate life-threatening rip currents and powerful swells along much of the Eastern Seaboard. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for parts of Hatteras Island, North Carolina, where 15–20 foot breaking waves are anticipated.

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place for the Turks and Caicos Islands and parts of the Bahamas. Flood Watches also continue for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Meanwhile, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic is showing increasing signs of development. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a 40% chance of formation within the next 7 days.

It is far too early to know its potential path. The disturbance is still more than 3,000 miles away, giving us plenty of time to monitor its progress.

The next name on this year’s Atlantic storm list is Fernand.

Erin strengthened into a hurricane late this morning. There have been no major shifts in its projected path. The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast cone strengthens this hurricane into a Category 4 storm.

Erin is expected to remain north of the Leeward Islands, but could bring tropical storm-force-winds and flooding to the islands it closely passes. Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands have been included within flood watches, as isolated rain totals surpassing 5 inches (through Monday) will be possible. Additionally, tropical storm watches have been issued for many of the Leeward Islands.

This hurricane is expected to pass well east of Florida early next week.

Confidence is growing that Erin will remain well off the coastline of the United States. Regardless, life-threatening rip tide and large swells are expected along the east coast as it passes. Bermuda will need to carefully monitor the progress of this storm.

There are currently no other spots to monitor in the Atlantic. Invest 98L pushed onshore Texas this afternoon and no longer poses any threat of development.