Melissa Strengthening South of Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa has resumed strengthening this evening and is still forecast to become a Category 5 hurricane within the next day.

At the moment, Melissa has sustained winds of 145 mph and a pressure of 933 mb.

It will likely make landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday, but impacts have already begun on the island.

A multi-day catastrophic rainfall event is underway. Up to 40 inches (over 1,000 mm) of rain could occur within the next four days. This will create a widespread flash flooding and landslide potential. Southwest Haiti and eastern Cuba will also be susceptible to multiple feet of rainfall as Melissa passes.

Hurricane warnings are active for Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for Cuba and southwest Haiti. While not all of Hispaniola is under active tropical storm warnings, flash flooding and landslides will be a concern for the entire island.

Damaging winds, potentially exceeding 150mph, will be possible near the center of the hurricane as it makes landfall. Additionally, the east side of the eye may create life-threatening storm surge. Early estimates place as much as nine to thirteen feet (2.7 to 4 meters) of surge along parts of Jamaica’s southern coastline as Melissa comes ashore.

Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue monitoring this storm for potential impacts. Melissa will stay well away from United States.

Melissa Becomes A Major Hurricane

Melissa is now a stronger hurricane, with winds likely exceeding 100 mph. It is now forecast to strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane by Monday.

This hurricane will remain south of Florida and is not a threat to the United States.

Jamaica remains within the forecast cone, with many weather models suggesting an eventual landfall on the island early next week.

A multi-day (potentially catastrophic) rain event begins tonight for Jamaica.

Flash flooding and landslides will be the primary threat, alongside a life-threatening storm surge on the southern coast early next week. Multiple feet of rainfall will be possible in some spots due to the hurricane’s slow movement. Southwestern Haiti and eastern Cuba will likely experience the same flash flooding and landslide concerns from this storm.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Jamaica. The storm’s most damaging winds will be found near Melissa’s center given a close pass or landfall on the island. A tropical storm warning continues for southwestern Haiti, with hurricane watches in effect for that same area and parts of Cuba.

The Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda will need to carefully monitor Melissa’s progress over the next few days.