‘Eta’ is now back out over open water in the northwestern Caribbean, and should become a tropical storm again soon. It’ll be moving northeast through most of the weekend, first crossing Cuba on its way toward South Florida and the Keys.

Every storm is different, and this one has a lot of factors in play that will determine its intensity and track as it moves north. Overall, what we’re expecting is basically a big ‘S’ turn track. That is to say, after being steered by a trough to the northeast over the next 48 hours or so, a ridge building in off the Atlantic will steer Eta back to the west and into the Gulf. Finally, another trough will then turn the storm back to the north-northeast.

What will ultimately determine the timing/location/severity of any impacts across Florida is the timing of these turns, land interaction, and how the storm’s intensity changes under the influence of the previously mentioned steering features. It’s safe to say that this is a tricky forecast puzzle to put together, so we need to be patient and take it day by day.

Over the weekend things will become more clear, but for now folks in South Florida need to be preparing for the possibility of tropical storm conditions beginning as early as Sunday evening. Check back with us often through the weekend for updates.

‘Eta’ made landfall in northeastern Nicaragua as a powerful category 4 hurricane on Tuesday afternoon. Wind damage was catastrophic near the coast, in addition to storm surge flooding. That being said, it has been the heavy rainfall, freshwater flooding, and landslides that have been the most impactful and widespread problem so far.

The big reason for that is the storm’s painfully slow speed. As of 11am EST Wednesday, Eta is a minimal tropical storm and continues to weaken; but it’s inching along at only 7 mph and continues to pound parts of Honduras and Nicaragua with heavy rain. Isolated rainfall amounts could be as high as 40″ when all is said and done.

By Friday, Eta (or at least its remnants) will re-emerge over the northwest Caribbean Sea – at which point at least some re-strengthening should occur. With a general northward motion over the weekend, Florida needs to be on guard for potential impacts early next week. At this point, it’s still too early to speculate the severity and location of those possible impacts. We’ll have updates for you daily here on myfoxhurricane.com, so be sure to check back with us.