It has been a rough few days of weather with Elsa moving up the East Coast of the U.S. with periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and even a few tornadoes from Florida all the way up through Maine. Elsa will now move through the Canadian Maritimes this weekend before fading over the North Atlantic next week.

Elsa was a named tropical system for 8.5 days – the fourth most for a July named storm in the Atlantic since the satellite era began in 1966.

It has been a fast start to the 2021 season, as Elsa was the earliest ‘E’ named storm on record. For now, things are quiet in the Atlantic basin. That being said, Colorado State University recently released their updated 2021 seasonal forecast – now calling for 20 named storms this (including the 5 that have already formed). The primary reasoning behind that the expectation of a weak La Nina during peak tropical season, which leads to decreased wind shear in the Atlantic.

Elsa has been battling some westerly shear today, that has so far prevented the storm from being vertically aligned – key component needed for strengthening. Despite this, Hurricane Hunters this afternoon found wind speeds of 70mph and Elsa is now expected to become a hurricane as it moves up Florida’s west coast tonight into early Wednesday. This isn’t going to change much though when it comes to expected impacts.

Hurricane warnings have now been posted from Tampa Bay northward to the Steinhatchee River. In these areas, hurricane-force wind gusts will be possible. Areas further inland are likely to experience a few tropical storm-force (40+ mph) wind gusts.

Elsa will bring periods of heavy rain as this evening through the overnight that could amount to 3-7″ with isolated higher amounts when all is said and done. This will likely cause areas of urban and river flooding, especially because it has been so wet recently.

A tornado watch is out until 11pm Tuesday. Tornadoes in tropical systems are often an afterthought, but can pose a serious threat. Have a way to get alerted of any warnings. A new watch will likely be issued this evening for the Nature Coast as well.

Storm surge is going to be a serious problem beginning after midnight tonight. 3-5 feet of surge around time of high tide time is not a good combo.