We’re closely watching the NW Caribbean this weekend where a system could organize and bring impacts to the Gulf coast next week.

As of Saturday morning, Invest 93L remains a tropical disturbance showing signs of organization near the Yucatan Peninsula. However, development is likely once it moves into a more favorable environment in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 70% chance of formation over the next 2 days and 90% chance over the next 7 days. 

Confidence is growing on at least some local impacts as most models are coming into more consistent agreement on a strengthening tropical system moving into the eastern Gulf early next week. 

A tropical depression could form as early as Sunday. Then, warm waters in the Gulf are forecast to support some intensification. We’ll have to monitor how the storm interacts with upper level wind shear, which could be a limiting factor. Right now, the system which would be named ‘Idalia’ is expected to become a tropical storm, but it could reach category 1 hurricane intensity before landfall somewhere along the Big Bend to the Florida Panhandle. The track forecast is not set in stone and will depend on a digging trough in the Southeast which will steer the system.

While it’s too early to discuss specifics as the storm hasn’t yet formed and we don’t have a center of circulation, local impacts are becoming more likely. Although the worst weather would be felt closest to the storm’s center, much needed rainfall, coastal flooding, gusty winds and some power outages are general possibilities on arrival. The forecast will come into better focus once a storm develops either late Sunday or Monday.

Subtropical Storm Don remains a weak and disorganized system over the waters of the Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores. As of Sunday morning, Don is barely hanging on as a subtropical storm with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph. Dry air and cooler waters are keeping convection associated with Don limited and the system is expected to remain in an unfavorable environment for further strengthening in the short term.

Don is currently moving north at 7 mph and is expected to be steered east, then south in the coming days as it weakens and stalls. There’s a chance it could restrengthen when it moves over warmer waters later this week. Don will not impact any land.

Don is the only named storm on the map currently as Saharan Dust continues to suppress tropical activity across the rest of the Atlantic basin. No other storms appear on the horizon. The next name on the list is Emily.