Idalia continues to become better organized and as of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center says it has strengthened to a hurricane. Satellite imagery is showing a mostly developed eyewall.

The storm, which did not move much over the last couple of days, is now accelerating northward at 14 mph and will continue to speed up on approach as it’s picked up by a diving trough. Idalia is still expected to rapidly intensify as it goes over very warm waters and into an area with less wind shear. A landfall is forecast as a category 3 hurricane along Florida’s Big Bend Wednesday morning.

There has been a slight westward shift in the track this morning, which keeps Tampa Bay and most of West Central Florida out of the cone and that includes the worst part of Idalia. However, with such a large storm, the impacts will be felt far from the center especially given we will be on the messier, east side of the storm. 

Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for most of the region, from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. Storm surge will be the most serious threat with Idalia along the coast where 4-7 feet of water above normal tide can impact Tampa Bay. This number could be higher closer to where Idalia makes landfall – as high as 6-9 feet from Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL and 8-12 feet from Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL, especially during times of high tide. The storm surge threat is the reason for any evacuation orders. Remember, water is the deadliest aspect of tropical systems.

In addition to storm surge, winds up to tropical storm forces are likely along the coast with a possibility of hurricane gusts. Winds will be less further inland. Strong winds could knock down trees, leading to power outages. 

In general, rainfall totals could range from 4-8” with higher amounts along the coast. Outer bands from Idalia could also lead to brief spin up tornadoes. The Storm Prediction has highlighted the Bay area in a SLIGHT RISK (Level 2 out of 5) for the possibility of severe storms. The worst weather will be late Tuesday into early Wednesday with gradually improving weather Wednesday afternoon. 

We will continue to track this storm on air and online. Be safe and stay tuned for the latest.

We’re closely watching the progression of Tropical Storm Idalia which continues to meander near the Yucatan peninsula. The storm forming late Sunday morning after Hurricane Hunter data showed it had strengthened from a depression. Idalia is currently impacting the region with heavy rain and gusty winds. The storm likely won’t move much over the next 24 hours as high pressure to the north and Franklin to its east keep it relatively stationary.

By Monday, Idalia is forecast to slowly move north as it’s picked up by a developing trough to the west of the storm and a building ridge to the east.

Models are beginning to come into agreement on a track to our west but there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding how close the system comes to the Tampa Bay area. Everyone along Florida’s Gulf coast should prepare for potentially significant impacts from this storm, whether direct or indirect.

We’re also seeing a signal for a stronger storm on approach that is likely to reach hurricane strength before landfall and a strong hurricane isn’t off the table. Water temps are exceptionally warm in the southern Gulf and Idalia is expected to be fueled by generally favorable conditions for intensification.

It’s important to remember that local impacts will depend on the exact strength of the storm and where exactly it goes. Tens of miles will make a difference.  At this point, it’s fair to say tropical downpours and squally weather could begin late Tuesday through Wednesday with the worst weather along the coast. Strong winds could lead to power outages as well as storm surge and coastal flooding, especially during periods of high tide. Stay tuned for updates.