For the first time in a long time, there is something to track in the Atlantic. A tropical wave emerged off the West African coast on Sunday, and currently has a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days.

There has been a decent amount of convection being sustained throughout the day, and environment conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development over the next few days. Saharan dust is still quite prevalent across the central Atlantic, which is ultimately going to be a primary limiting factor.

Models, at this stage, don’t provide a whole lot of value; and there isn’t a whole of agreement anyway. The most aggressive solutions are recent runs of the GFS, which show a moderate tropical storm forming later this week. Either way, this shouldn’t be an issue for the U.S. However, it’s a good reminder that activity is on the upswing.

It’s been more than a month since we last had any activity to monitor in the Atlantic basin, and that stretch will continue at least through the weekend. That being said, things have to pick up sooner or later as we head into the peak of hurricane season, and there have been some indications that a robust tropical coming off the coast of Africa next week could bear watching.

This time of year, winds are typically becoming more favorable for development and the extent of Saharan dust begins to lessen. As this happens, tropical activity tends to ramp up quickly, and we have to remind ourselves that the bulk of the hurricane season still lies ahead.

On Thursday, NOAA released an update to their 2022 hurricane season outlook. The numbers are essentially unchanged, with a 60% of an above normal season when all is said and done. At the end of the day, regardless of what any outlook says, we stay prepared as always. It doesn’t matter how many or how few storms we end up having – all it takes is one.