Tropical Storm Ian has an asymmetric appearance on satellite this morning due northerly shear which continues to plague the storm. As of the 11am Advisory, Ian has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving west at 15 mph. Pressure is 1003 mb. Ian is expected to strengthen this weekend as it passes south of Jamaica and approaches the Cayman Islands, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. 

By Monday, Ian is forecast to reach hurricane intensity as it approaches the western portion of Cuba. Ian is expected to move into an environment favorable for rapidly intensification due to the light wind shear and above average water temperatures in its path. With only limited land interaction over Cuba, Ian could reach major hurricane status as it emerges in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next week. 

While a direct impact somewhere in Florida is becoming more and more likely next week, it is still difficult to know exactly where this will be. The latest official track has shifted slightly to the west with the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. However, nearly the entire state of Florida remains in the cone of uncertainty. It’s important to keep in mind the long-term average day 4 and 5 track errors are around 150-200 miles.

The exact impacts we will see will be determined by the exact track Ian takes. While that is not set in stone, it is still a good idea to finalize plans this weekend, in the event they will need to be implemented.

As of 5pm Friday, Tropical Depression Nine was located a little over 400 miles ESE of Jamaica. The system is still battling of bit of northeasterly wind shear, but it’ll be moving into an environment much more conducive for organization this weekend. It could become a named storm at any time.

As this moves further to the west, it reaches an area with enormous tropical heat potential. Very deep, warm water will undoubtedly lead to straightening. In all likelihood this becomes a hurricane late Sunday or early Monday south of Cuba, and approaches Florida Tuesday into Wednesday. We must stress, it’s not out of the question that this becomes a major hurricane (category 3+) during that time.

With respect to track, although we’ve been able to narrow it down to a general path toward Florida, it’s important to remember that the cone is still very wide at day 5 (about 400 miles). A track up the left hand side of the cone vs the right hand side means drastically different impacts for any given location. So, while it is still too early to nail down the specific timing/location of impacts, folks anywhere along the Florida peninsula need to be in the early stages of their prep. This means it’s time to review your plan and take an inventory of your supplies should you need to start taking action early next week.

Afternoon model guidance is still a bit split beyond the next 2-3 days. The latest Euro hints at a southwest Florida landfall while the GFS is further north into the Big Bend. Again, these are two drastically different outcomes when it comes to impacts. As data collection continues and the storm develops a bit more, models will come into better agreement. So, just as we know a lot more now than we did yesterday or the day before, we’ll know a lot more over the weekend.