Tropical Storm Ian is gradually looking better on satellite presentation this morning including the overall circulation and center of the storm. As of the 11 AM Advisory, Ian had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and was moving WNW at 14 mph with a pressure of 1001 mb. While its strength has not changed much, Ian is expected to go through a process of rapid intensification later today as it passes well southwest of Jamaica in an environment of light wind shear and deep, warm water.

Ian will then slowly turn more NW around the western side of the subtropical ridge taking the center southwest of Grand Cayman by Monday morning likely as a hurricane. As Ian taps into the favorable environment of the northern Caribbean Sea Monday, we could see the storm ramp up to category 3 major hurricane strength by the time Ian slams into western Cuba 24 hours later. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for parts of Cuba.

While we have a good handle on that part of the forecast, it is beyond Tuesday that things get a bit murky. Long range forecasts continue to disagree with a large degree of spread leading to ‘significant uncertainty’ in the eventual track and local impacts from the storm. While the GFS solution still favors a track further west that parallels the Peninsula, the Euro solution remains adamant on a path farther east into west-central Florida. Either way, we could be looking at a significant hurricane passing to our west, which would put the Tampa Bay region on the east side of the storm, where potential impacts could include dangerous storm surge, hurricane force winds, heavy rain, and severe weather. However, the magnitude of those impacts would depend on how closely the storm comes to the state.

The further north Ian travels in the Gulf, the less favorable the environment it’ll move into, causing the storm to weaken some. The other consideration is the timing. Because the storm will appear to slow down before emerging into the Gulf, local impacts wouldn’t be felt until Tuesday night at the earliest and more likely on Wednesday and Thursday.

The takeaway remains the same: the forecast track will continue to change and improve with time. Folks along the west coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay region should plan and prepare for the possibility of a hurricane. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the forecast.

As of the 5pm advisory on Saturday evening, the center of Tropical storm Ian was located a couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. The storm is still moving west along the southern edge or a ridge to the north, but a turn to the northwest should take place on Sunday.

Just looking the satellite imagery you can see that the system has definitely gotten more organized today as expected. The northeasterly shear of the last few days is no longer having an effect. With no wind shear, very minimal land interaction, and incredibly deep warm water Ian will strengthen without a doubt rather quickly the rest of the weekend into early next week. In fact, there rather higher likelihood that it undergoes a period of rapid intensification – that is an increase of at least 35 mph in wind speeds within a 24 hour period.

With respect to track beyond 3 days or so, there remains a high degree of uncertainty. Afternoon models run today haven’t provided much clarity. There was a noticeable shift west in both the GFS and Euro runs – the GFS continuing to be the further west of the two. That being said, there is still a considerable spread amongst there ensemble members. We’ll see if the trend continues in upcoming runs later tonight and tomorrow. For now, the National Hurricane Center has bumped the latest track slightly to the west. We must stress that the entire Florida Gulf Coast needs to be on guard and paying close attention to this storm.