On Thursday morning, Subtropical Depression Five formed in the North Atlantic. The disturbance has about another 24 hours or so in a somewhat favorable environment with relatively low wind shear and warm water. During this time, enough strengthening should take place for it to become our 5th named storm of the season, Ernesto. After the next next day or two, however, the system should quickly lose any tropical characteristics as it begins to accelerate northeastward over much cooler waters.

Regardless of development, this will for the most part be another ‘fish storm’. It’s remnants though will likely bring some wind and rain to parts of the United Kingdom late in the weekend into early next week.

A low pressure system remains situated several hundred miles south of Newfoundland. It is non-tropical in nature with convection focused on the east side and likely won’t become tropical over the next few days. Organization of the system has not improved, but it could become more sub-tropical into Wednesday. After it moves northeast into the colder waters of the Atlantic Thursday & Friday, any further development will be unlikely. Even if the system does become better organized it will remain over open water and not impact any land masses.