By the end of the weekend we will likely have 3 named storms in the Atlantic and 3 hurricanes by early next week. Tropical Storm Florence is the storm of most concern right now as models are indicating impacts along the east coast. The storm weakened to tropical storm status as it entered an area of high wind shear, but rapid intensification is likely as the storm moves into warmer water and lower wind shear. Florence is expected to become a major hurricane by Monday. Large swells are affecting Bermuda and will begin to impact the East Coast tomorrow.

The exact track is not set in stone yet, there is still time for Florence to take more of a northerly turn as it nears the coastline. Right now the European model is taking Florence to South Carolina, while the GFS is a little further north into North Carolina. We may get a weakness in the ridge which is steering Florence to the west. The weakness would allow for more of a northerly path.

The tropical wave that recently came off the African coast has organized into Tropical Storm Helene. Strengthening to a category 1 hurricane is forecast as it moves westward. Helene will pass very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight into early Sunday. Flash flooding is possible as the storm is expected to produce 3-5″ of rain, locally 8″ is possible. After pulling away from the Cabo Verde Islands it will likely turn north, heading out into the open water.

Tropical Depression 9 will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaac by the end of the weekend, then become a category 1 hurricane. It will continue to battle dry air as it moves westward toward the Lesser Antilles into the middle of next week.

At some point in the next day or two, we should have three named storms in the Atlantic. Of most importance at the moment is Florence, currently located about 935 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The storm has encountered an area of high wind shear over the last day and a half and weakened dramatically from a category 4 hurricane to a tropical storm. However, it is expected to restrengthen and become a hurricane again over the weekend as it moves into a better environment.

Florence should continue on a general westerly track through the weekend. At this point it seems likely that the storm will miss Bermuda to the south, but will be a close call and residents should still monitor the progress of this storm closely.

It is still too early to say whether or not Florence will have a direct impact on the East Coast. We’re still about 6 days away from a U.S. landfall, if one were to occur. The key steering mechanism continues to be a mid-level ridge north of Bermuda. By early next week a trough may develop a weakness in this ridge allowing the storm to move more north-northwest, perhaps missing the East Coast all together. There is still considerable model uncertainty, however, regarding the strength and timing of these steering components. Time will tell, and by the end of the weekend we should have a very good idea of what, if any, U.S. impacts there will be from Florence.

In the far eastern Atlantic, two new storms are trying to form a couple of vigorous tropical waves that have rolled off the coast of Africa. The names next in line would Helene and Isaac. Invest 92L has a 90% chance of development over the next 48 hours, while the other has been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight. The disturbance farther west should make its way across the Atlantic toward the Lesser Antilles over the next week or so. The system behind it should generally follow suit, but start to move north by the middle of next week. Time is certainly on our side here. We’ll take it day by day and see how things evolve.