By the end of the weekend we will likely have 3 named storms in the Atlantic and 3 hurricanes by early next week. Tropical Storm Florence is the storm of most concern right now as models are indicating impacts along the east coast. The storm weakened to tropical storm status as it entered an area of high wind shear, but rapid intensification is likely as the storm moves into warmer water and lower wind shear. Florence is expected to become a major hurricane by Monday. Large swells are affecting Bermuda and will begin to impact the East Coast tomorrow.

The exact track is not set in stone yet, there is still time for Florence to take more of a northerly turn as it nears the coastline. Right now the European model is taking Florence to South Carolina, while the GFS is a little further north into North Carolina. We may get a weakness in the ridge which is steering Florence to the west. The weakness would allow for more of a northerly path.

The tropical wave that recently came off the African coast has organized into Tropical Storm Helene. Strengthening to a category 1 hurricane is forecast as it moves westward. Helene will pass very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight into early Sunday. Flash flooding is possible as the storm is expected to produce 3-5″ of rain, locally 8″ is possible. After pulling away from the Cabo Verde Islands it will likely turn north, heading out into the open water.

Tropical Depression 9 will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaac by the end of the weekend, then become a category 1 hurricane. It will continue to battle dry air as it moves westward toward the Lesser Antilles into the middle of next week.