The chances of development for the tropical wave west of the Lesser Antilles is dwindling. What is a disorganized area of showers and storms will continue moving west northwest over the next several days. It will bring rain to parts of the Caribbean but do little else.

Dry air is sitting over the western Caribbean and helps inhibit organization.

The wave not only has dry air to deal with but also strong wind shear. Wind shear shaves off the tops of thunderstorms and keeps them from strengthening and organizing. Both of these factors only give the wave a 10% chance of development.

It is looking less likely a tropical wave in the Atlantic will develop. The wave originated off the coast of Africa and has struggled to get organized the past several days. As it moves west heading towards the Lesser Antilles, it will encounter dry air and pockets of strong wind shear. Both are elements that minimize development in tropical systems.  The National Hurricane Center only gives it a 20% of development the next 2 days and 30% over the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor it, but the main impact will be heavy rain for parts of the Caribbean.