Dorian is still a category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds and gusts to 200 mph. It has become almost stationary over Grand Bahama island only moving west at 1 mph. The islands will continue to see hurricane force winds for the next 18 to 24 hours. They are also dealing with dangerous storm surge of 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves.

The latest track continues to keep the center of Dorian offshore as it parallels the east coast. It will still be a powerful category 4 storm with steady weakening as it moves northwest.

Georgia and Carolina coastlines should closely monitor the progress of Dorian as they could see impacts later this week.

On Dorian’s current path with the center passing east of the coastline, Tampa Bay is looking at gusty 30 mph winds and tropical downpours Tuesday. Polk & Highlands counties are under tropical storm watches for the potential of tropical storm force wind gusts.

The most significant impacts will be felt along the east coast as hurricane force winds extend out 45 miles from the center. A shift further to the east will lessen the impacts of storm surge, coastal flooding and wind speeds. But the closer to the coastline it passes the greater the impacts will be.

Storm surge watches and warnings are posted for the east coast. From Jacksonville to West Palm Beach they could see 4 to 7 feet storm surge. While Fort Lauderdale to north of Boca Raton  is looking at potentially 2 to 4 foot storm surge.

The ridge that has been steering Dorian westward has weakened, causing the slowdown over the northwest Bahamas. A trough heading to the east coast will help steer it northwest and then northeast.

At 5pm Sunday, Hurricane Dorian was located about 95 miles east of Freeport on Grand Bahama Island and moving west at only 5 mph. The storm has already made two landfalls in the Bahamas, both with 185 mph winds. These are tied for the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall on record with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.

Dorian will continue moving painfully slow through these islands, very near Grand Bahama, over the next 18-24 hours before it begins the turn north and starts to pick up speed again. Majority of reliable models still keep the storm off of Florida’s East Coast, but it will be a very close call. A 25 mile shift here or there will make a make difference when it comes to impacts. A Florida landfall can’t still can’t be completely ruled out. Folks along Florida’s East Coast need to stay prepared for that possibility, especially given Dorian’s intensity.

Hurricane warnings are now in effect along from the Jupiter Inlet to Volusia/Brevard co. line.

Further north, along the coast of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, there is the possibility of significant impacts from Dorian later in the week. A track offshore is possible here as well, but there is a little less model consensus at this point. Folks in these areas need to be monitoring the progress of Dorian closely in the coming days.