At 5pm Thursday, the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine’. This designation is used when they’re expecting a storm to form close to land. It allows them to issue watches/warnings for areas that may be impacted within 48 hours. Tropical Storm Humberto is likely to form within the next day or two.

Majority of model guidance develops the system near the Northwestern Bahamas, and then moves it north just off Florida’s East Coast. That is the solution we’re leaning toward right now. Either way, the areas hit hard by Hurricane Dorian just a few weeks ago will unfortunately be impacted by tropical downpours and gusty winds over the next 2-3 days. Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for those islands.

For Florida, a track off the East Coast almost always leads to minimal impacts, especially with a weaker system. For now, those on the on the East Coast can expect off and on rain with gusty winds, possibly up to tropical storm-force, mainly Sunday and Monday, along with high surf. On the west coast of the state, any impacts would be limited to a couple breezy days with a few fast-moving showers.

While a storm moving up the East Coast is the most likely scenario, there is still the possibility of a weaker system moving further west. This would lead to higher rain chances across the entire state and along the Gulf Coast. We should be able to nail down the forecast within the next day or so.

A large area of showers and storms over parts of the Bahamas this morning is gradually becoming more organized. It’s quite possible a tropical depression or tropical storm will form within the next day or so as conditions become more favorable. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this disturbance later today. Depending on their findings, ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone’ advisories could be initiated. This is a term used to describe a disturbance that is not yet a tropical cyclone, but which poses the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.

Periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across most of the Bahamas through Friday, including those areas hit extremely hard by Dorian less than 2 weeks ago. Beyond that, the forecast is highly uncertain. This is often the case when dealing with an area of disturbed weather in the tropics, because a low-level center has yet to form. Until that happens, it’s tough to lend much credence to any model solutions. As of Thursday morning guidance, the GFS continued to show a weak system moving west-northwest across Florida. This would enhance rain chances across Florida and the Gulf Coast, but not do much else. The early morning Euro model run on the other hand develops this into a tropical storm, if not a hurricane, moving through parts of the Bahamas and north, just off the East Coast of Florida. Again, until this organizes a bit more and models can lock on to a center, there’s going to be some forecast uncertainty. We’ll see what the Hurricane Hunters find later today and bring you an update then.

While this disturbance is the focal point right now, there’s also a tropical wave out in the Atlantic that will likely be one to watch down the road. For now, it’s a long way away.