And we’re off! The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane is off to an early start, as Tropical Depression One has formed this evening about 125 miles off the east coast of Florida.

While the surrounding environment is quite dry, wind shear is light and this system will be riding along the warm Gulf Stream as it moves north-northeast. As a result, slow and steady strengthening is anticipated – with Tropical Storm Arthur likely forming Saturday night or early Sunday.

With weak systems like this, it’s tough for models to get a good handle on things. A general north-northeast track is expected the next few days, but just how close soon-to-be Arthur will get to the Outer Banks of North Carolina is a bit uncertain. For now, a tropical storm watch has been issued from Surf City, NC to Duck, NC.