11am Thursday: Tropical Storm Barry has now formed about 95 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It is expected to slowly strengthen over the next 36 hours or so as environmental conditions become more favorable. Current intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Barry becoming a category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph prior to landfall.

Regardless of whether or not this intensity forecast comes to fruition, Barry will create a dangerous flooding threat across much of the lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend into early next week. The Mississippi is already swollen from springtime flood waters flowing south, as well as recent heavy rains. Adding to that, a swath of 10-20″ of rain is expected to fall across southern Louisiana and parts of Mississippi over the next few days.

This could be a particularly dangerous situation in places like New Orleans. Along the Mississippi, Levees protect to an average of 20 feet in the city. Current forecast river height in this area is 19 feet by Saturday night. Levees will be tested and there is likely to be water spilling over in some areas.

For the latest watches/warnings visit the National Hurricane Center or your local National Weather Service website.