The Atlantic hurricane season hits it peak on Monday and we now have three named storms to watch – Florence, Helene, and Isaac.

Of highest importance for the United States right now is Florence, which is now located about 800 miles southeast of Bermuda and heading due west. Model trends over the last day or two have been disconcerting for interests along the southeastern U.S. coastline. We’ve seen a shift that has hinted at a more southwesterly track, slowly diminishing the possibility of the storm staying offshore as it begins to turn north. That being, a track that keeps the storm offshore is still in the cards.

The afternoon Euro model run took Florence onshore in southeastern North Carolina near Wilmington, while the last couple runs of the GFS have turned the storm north sooner and actually kept it just offshore.

While there are still some questions to be answered regarding the track of Florence, intensity guidance has been fairly consistent. The National Hurricane Center has high confidence that this system will strengthen rapidly over the next few days and approach the SE coast as a category 4 or 5 storm. This is could be come an extremely dangerous situation for folks in those areas and they need to monitor the progress of this storm closely.

Helene and Isaac will be moving west over the next few days and both are likely to become hurricanes. Helene should start to curve north by the middle of the week and should ultimately not pose a threat to anyone. Isaac on the other hand will likely be moving into the Caribbean by Thursday. Parts of the Lesser Antilles may see tropical storm or hurricane warnings issued at some point on Tuesday. Still too early to say whether Isaac will have any impact on the U.S. mainland, but there aren’t any reliable models hinting at that possibility right now.