As we head into the heart of hurricane season, updated outlooks are posted by NOAA and Colorado State University. NOAA will release its update at some point in the next couple weeks, but CSU released its update on Thursday afternoon.

With near-record cool waters and higher than normal wind shear across the central Atlantic the rest of the season, it’s no surprise they have tempered their expectations just a bit from the preseason forecast. They now call for 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane – near to just below seasonal averages. Keep in mind, these updated numbers include the 3 named storms (2 hurricanes) that we’ve already had this season.

Remember, no matter how active or quiet a season is, all it takes is one storm.