A disturbance sitting in the western Caribbean Sea is very disorganized and only has a low chance of development. Unfavorable upper level winds are keeping formation chance at 10% over the next 2 days. As the disturbance moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, conditions become slightly more favorable for development with a 20% over the next 5 days.

The disturbance will take a west to northwestward track over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. Heavy rainfall is forecast for areas in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula.

None of the reliable computer models are developing the disturbance. They move it northwestward as a slug of deep tropical moisture.