Over the next week or two we’ll monitor a tropical wave as it crosses the main development region and likely enters the Caribbean Sea early next week.

The National Hurricane Center has given the spot a low (20%) chance of formation within the next seven days.

While short-term development is unlikely, conditions would become more favorable for formation if it makes it into the central and western Caribbean by the end of next week.

Waters are abnormally warm in this region and could support a tropical storm or hurricane.

It’s far too early to accurately speculate on its exact path. The position of our jet stream, speed, and strength of the storm are still unknown at this time.

It should also be noted that even though there is a growing signal that something could form, many weather models still do not show anything developing. The mainland U.S. will have well over a week to monitor its progress.

Melissa would be the next name up from our 2025 storm naming list.

Lorenzo is currently the only active named storm in the Atlantic. The tropical storm is located in the central Atlantic and poses no threat to land.

Lorenzo should dissipate by the end of this week.

Meanwhile, a new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa.

While tropical development is not anticipated in the short-term, many weather models have this disturbance entering the central and west Caribbean over a week from now. That track would eventually take it into a favorable environment for organizing if it survives crossing the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.

This is reflected within the latest Tropical Cyclone Outlook, where the Climate Prediction Center has assigned the spot over a 40% chance of development between October 22nd/28th. It’s far too early to draw conclusions on the path it may take if it becomes our next named system.

If a named storm forms, the next name used will be Melissa.