Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed in the central tropical Atlantic this morning. Gabrielle is currently a very disorganized tropical storm with ragged convection and sustained winds of 45mph.

The storm will be fighting off Saharan dust before entering into a more favorable environment with warmer waters by the weekend. This will likely give it enough of a window for it to strengthen into a hurricane.

This is not a threat to Florida and should stay well east of the United States. Bermuda is now within the forecast cone and will need to monitor the progress of Gabrielle.

Separate from Gabrielle, there are two other areas of potential development we are now monitoring.

A tropical wave passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands will have a small chance to become a named storm wihin the next week.

Behind the Cabo Verde disturbance, a second tropical wave is expected to emerge off the African coastline later this week. It will also have a low chance of formation within the next seven days.

The next name on our 2025 storm naming list would be Humberto.

This tropical wave in the central Atlantic, now deemed Invest 92L, has a high chance to develop this week. The odds are up to 80% in the next 7 days and 40% in the next 2 days.

The disturbance is still battling dust and wind shear as it tries to get organized. It is moving west-northwest through the tropical Atlantic.

The system will start to tap into more favorable conditions to develop as it moves away from Saharan dust and into warmer waters.

This will likely become a depression around the middle to end of this week. If sustained winds reach 40 mph, this would become the 7th named storm of the season – Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

The main steering will be the Bermuda High and a break in the ridge looks likely to curve the system north. Many models are trending with this happening near/north of the islands and staying well east of Florida and the U.S.

If this forms, it has a good chance becoming a fish storm and staying out to sea. Impacts to Bermuda and/or Caribbean Islands could still happen in that scenario. There’s also the possibility of seeing a track similar to Hurricane Erin with no direct hit.

For now, this tropical wave is not a worry for the Continental U.S. but we will watch the trends evolve as the system gets better organized.